USD/CHF wkly chart

USDCHF is the same as USD/JPY.
From the low at 0.9636 last march, the pair have made a correction in 3 waves, we already hit the equality arround 1.0980.
We recovered 38.2% of the former downside movement from 1.3280 (nov 2005) til .9636 (march 08).
USD/CHF have problems in weekly to handdle 1.1060, the pair is making2 doji (hanging man).
There is a risk of downside now on usdchf, moreover, we are on the bottom of the cloud on weekly chart and I don't think rates are goin ghigher.
We are dealing above the EMA 50, RSI is still in negative and MACD just crossed.
On the ichimoku, the 2 sen crossed but under the cloud, which means becareful with the "bullish trend" .
span is dealing above the rates but seems to have made a top, and Span is working below the cloud.

On daily we are in a range at the present time, with a lot of Doji , counter days.

Prefer the short options at the present time

In the uptrend

Be long @1.1371 SL 1.1192
Be short @ 1.1192 SL 1.1371

In the downtrend

Be long @1.0832 SL 1.0653
Be short @1.0653 SL 1.0832

Cable Wkly charts

Cable took an incredible slap more than 1650 pips during the month, movement could been predicted a little bit by the 7 last months on cable which formed 7 doji or quite doji.

Everything is bearish and in all time frame!!!!
But it s interesting to note that we are correcting in 3 waves composed like follow

1. the first correction from 2.1161(Nov 07) to 1.9336(January 08)
2. We made a correction on lateral movement from 1.9336(January08) til 2.0158 (July08)
3. The third movement is in progress

Ususally there is equality, the already hit the theoric point in technical analysis, where the movment from 2.1161 to 1.9336 is the same than the one from 2.0158 to 1.8333*

1.8333= ( 2.0158 - ( 2.1161-1.9336 ))

In Fibonacci we are retraced more than 61.8% of the movement from 1.7047(Nov 05)-2.1161(Nov 08).

Enter short now is in my opinion a suicide, I will wait a signal to buy for a correction of a such movement.

in the uptrend

Be long @1.9125 sL 1.8667

Be short @1.8667

in the downtrend

Be long @1.7749 SL 1.7291

Be short @1.7291 SL 1.7749

I draw a chanel, don't know if it s good or not, thing is if we break 1.7291 we are going much lower arround 1.4500/500 in long term view.

USD/JPY wlky chart

Signals are September 2008

September is going to be the USD/JPY month, I am convinced about that, all the jpy pairs showed a strong jpy as carry trade position are reducing.

In weekly USDJPY is showing the same than GBP/JPY a month ago, 2 big doji on the last three weeks.

Moreover, we are on the EMA50, just on it MACD crossed to the upside, RSI bounced back on 50 levels, and stay in bear trend. Signals are mixed.

In weekly, Ichimoku, we reached and we stayed 2wks arrounds the bottom of the cloud, we didn't arrive to enter inside the cloud.

At last, USD/JPY retraced former downtrend from 124.13(June 07) til 95.73(March08) by 50%, the candle pattern formation boost our bearish case scenario.

The 2 Kijun, and Tenkan Sen are still on the upside and Chinkou Span is still under the cloud but above the rates.

On daily chart, there is a bearish divergence on our MACD, RSI is closed to cross 50 levels.
and EMA 50 @ 108.15 is attracting the rates. If we break it market will accelerate in our view the downside, the support will be seen arround 106.95 as it s also the March trend line support

In the uptrend

Be long @110.66 SL 109.73
Be short @109.73 SL 110.66

In the downtrend

Be long @ 107.87 SL 106.94
Be short @106.94 SL 107.87

We are currently short USD/JPY @109.11 with a SL @110.80, objective is seen at 105.00, then 103.20, and 101.30 before 100.00

EUR/USD wkly chart

I have choosen a weekly charts to see the levels of Fibonacci from the Low of Nov 2005 @ 1.1642 and the all time high @1.1638, levels are on the charts but the interesting thing, is 38.2% is correponding to the long term support trend line.

The main trend is bullish, in my opinion, the huge downside movement from August is only a correction.
On daily chart we broke early august a huge horizontal challenge, we drew a very nice M.
The theoric objective was hit @ 1.4566 ( same distance from 1.5302(june08) to 1.6038(july 08)).
I will be not surprised if the movement is going to 1.4380 before a huge bounce to the1.50-52 first, and 1.60 later in the year.
All indicators under the weekly chart are showing downtrend, but we have problems to go lower.
RSI is oversold MACD is showing downtrend, EAM50 is crossing to the downside the EMA 150.
The 2 sen have crossed, we are working under the cloud, and Span is floating under the cloud, and under the rates.

In the uptrend

Be long @ 1.5255 with a SL @ 1.4964
Be short @1.4964 with a SL @1.5255

In the downtrend

Be long @1.4382 with a SL @1.4091
Be short @ 1.4091 with a SL @1.4382
The same as GBP/JPY, and it will be the same for the others position, be very carefull with your sl, as the SL are wide.

GBP/JPY analysis Wlky chart

I let the settings of last month, the only thing I can say, it's incredible, it s a school case, we were right, I couldn't imagine than GBPJPY will drop like that in a month, GBP took a huge slap.

GBPJPY dropped by in about 1 600 pips!!!

It s funny cause on the chart we can see a the wave clearly,

Wave 1 from 251.09(Jul 07) to 219.32 (Aug 07)

Wave 2 from 219.32 to 241.36(Oct 07)

wave 3 from 241.36 to 192.53(Mar 08)

wave 4 from 192.53 to 215.87(Jul 08)

Wave 5 current move with an objective to 184.10

On daily chart, everything is showing bearish trend, RSI is entering in oversold territory, MACD is under 0, trend is bearish.
The ichimoku, are showing also the same bear trend, the 2 sen crossed, we are dealing under the cloud, and the Span is going to new lows,

GBP/JPY is going back to the March 08 lows at 192.50, if we break it the objective is the area of 184-185.

Becareful in using the points this month, as we had a huge volatility in August the signals are wide, so recommand to adjust it with your money management.

In the uptrend

Be Long @207.11 with 202.62 as SL

Be Short @202.62 with 207.11 as SL

In the downtrend

Be Long @193.62 with 189.13 as SL
Be Short @189.13 with 193.62 as SL

I am waiting a small bounce in the coming days to 202.60, test of the 13/8/8 low, seems to be a nice resistance, the same with 201.78(21/8/8)low.

September 08 Levels

September 08 News

Hello Hope everything is alright,

So we are up by in about 3 000 pips, we are going to open positions only on
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
EUR/JPY
EURCHF
EUR/GBP
GBP/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Will be easier for us to manage only these pairs

We have 2 open positions

Short USD/JPY @109.11 SL 110.38
Short NZD/USD @0.7080 SL 0.7080

NZD/USD

We are puting our SL at our price 0.7080 on NZD/USD, we are thinking to see a weaker USD due to the roll of September. We are keeping our position short usdjpy, which is ranging at the present time but should drop very soon in our opinion
Wish you a nice day and we are making this week end a sum up like at the begining of the month.

25th aug NZD/USD

Short NZD/USD @0.7080 SL 0.7204 target 0.6640

short usdjpy @109.11 SL 110.38 TP 106.57 and even lower to 100

Think we have to wait the end of the month to see some new signal to re open positions.
I am still thinking to see a weaker USD later in the year, we are only retracing.
So we know one thing, all the G8 are on recession or are close to be.
Carefull in September due to the roll over of loans.... , banks will have other losses to show, it s not finished

Update of the position

13 august 2008

HEllo all,

As we are on holiday, it s the reason why the blog is not updated everyday.
Market broke several big points, which sent the USD much higher, but still thinking we are in a correction, and the main trend is bearish.
System gave very good return this month, more than 1 500 pips on the 10 pairs.
See u next week .
We are closing all our position now

Target for open position

Our target on our open positions are

GBPJPY our target is 208.75
EURJPY our target is 165.50
USDCHF our target is 1.0690
GBPUSD our target is 1.9380
USDJPY our target is 106.50

Positions on aug 5 2008

Morning, note the moved our stopped on all ccys, we were stopped at our price on usdnok, and we were stopped on cable, so now we are short @1.9550 and we put our stop at our entry prices on USDCHF, GBPJPY and EURJPY

GBPUSD 05/08/08

If we are stopped at 1.9552, reverse position and be short with SL @1.9692 for a test of 1.9350

04 August 2008

long GBP/USD @ 1.9692 SL 1.9552 target 1.9974

GBPJPY Weekly chart

Same view as mid July, we bounced on the strong resistance @215.87, trend is on the downside, span is crossing prices levels on daily and weekly.

MACD is showing bearish divergence, the RSI is very close from 50, and we are very close from EMA 50, even if we are working above the cloud.

We are currently short from 214.20, and we are expecting 208.00 and even lower 201.00

Be short at 209.62, SL 211.79 for a target arround 204.20 and 201.00

AUD/USD daily chart

We are on our long level of the month, but will not take the long at the present time, due to commodities price action, don't believe in the long. Expecting lower side before a bounce, we could play the long after we are certain of a bottom.
MACD crossed, same for RSI, prices are going to go downside, we can imagine that prices are on the way to the EMA 200 arround 0.9180 before a bounce.
The current trend is bearish, we are working under the cloud, et the two sen have already crossed. We also crossed the yearly channel(channel from July 2007). On monthly candlestick formation are very bearish, like if we reached a top.
I prefer to stay outside.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Market have problems to go above 170.30.

Rates are playing above the cloud, the 2 sen are showing a bullish trend. Thing is they are very close. Span is trying to break and to work under prices which is bearish view.

We rebound last 2 weeks 2 times on the EMA50, we can watch divergence on MACD and RSI over the few last weeks.

The cloud is fat, which means the trend will be stronger, so if we are going under 165.66 we could increase the probability of a return to 161.60.

In short term open a short @ 165.66 with SL @ 166.93 and 161.60 as target.

I will not open a long position at the present time or taking my profit at 166.93, I am waiting for a massive drop on eurjpy, will see arround 165.60 what's happening

USD/CHF daily chart

It's bullish time on a short term, main trend is down, but we are trying to reach a top before collapsing.

I think, rates could reach 1.0615 even 1.0680 before boucing to the downside.

On the daily chart, we are dealing above the cloud, the two Kijun sen, and tenkan sen have already crossed the span is crossing the rates.

RSI, and MACD have also crossed their neutral levels to the upside, so next resistance are seen arround 1.0690/1.0700 and 1.0720.

Currently we are long USDCHF at 1.0420 with a SL @ 1.0319 with target arround 1.0690.

In case be short USD/CHF at 1.0615 with a SL @1.0756 for 1.0330 and later 1.0000 as medium term target.

Be long at 1.0756 with SL 1.0615 for a test of 1.1000

USDJPY daily chart

On the daily chart, we are working on the EMA 200, we have problems to hurdle 108.30-50 and we have problems to go under 107.50.
We tried two times to break 108.30 so EMA 200 is protecting the downside trend.
We are working above the cloud, the Kijun and Tenkan Sen have already crossed to the upside, but the span is trying to work under the rates.
MACD, and RSI are above their neutral levels but they are close from them.
When we are watching at weekly chart, we have the EMA 50 which is playing the same character than EMA 200 on daily chart and trend remains strongly bearish.

If we reach 106.60 the bearish view will be bolster, in the other case a breaking of 108.30 will bolster the upside trend.

We are currently short since august @ 107.36 with taget as 105.00 b

Be short @105.30 with SL at 106.57, 100.00 as target

Cable daily

It's very complex pair in my opinion, cause UK is in the same horrible situation then the States, and probably more than them.
Inflation and recession are coming, and BOE will have problem to solve the equations both at the same time. Choice have to be choosen correctly and all central banks have these dilemna at the present time. Do they have to fight inflation first in coming the country into recession or to help growth with low rates bossting inflation and destroying economy in the long term.....

We are working above the cloud but prices couldn't arrive to stay above 2.0000.
The 2 sen are crossing to the downside, span is going to work under prices which is bearish, cloud is very thin, RSI, and MACD are also their neutral levels to the downside.
Same feelings than on EURUSD, GBP can rebound from these areas to retest higher of the former months.
The 1.9380 seems to be well protected, any break of it will bring cable toward 1.9110-20 level and probably lower with objectives at 1.9000 even to 1.8630 area which is 61.8% fibo from 1.7065(Dec 2005) and 2.1161(nov 2007).

Currently we don't have open positions on cable

Be long @1.9692 withStop Loss @1.9552 target: 2.000 test and probably to 2.0150, before 2.0350 and 2.0480

Be short @1.9552 with SL @ 1.9692 target @ 1.9380 and lower as i said above.

EURUSD daily chart

At the first look, we are doing the similar pattern than what happenedbetween November 2007 and February 2008 when we broke 1.5000. It's interesting we are gdoing the same at 1.6000.

The main trend is still on the upside even if we are working at the bottom of the cloud.

The 2 sen(Kijun, and Tenkan) crossed to the downside, which means the pair could work lower. The Chinkou Span is working under the rates, means also the pair needs to work below the current levels.

We broke also the EMA50, while MACD, and RSI have been crossing their neutral to the downside too.

We are working in a huge range from 1.6030 - 1.5280, Any breaks from of this 2 levels will giving to us the next trend , I think we will have an answer very soon.

Currently we are long at 1.5605 with a SL 1.5510(from July).

Be long @1.5455 with a Stop Loss @ 1.5313(reverse the position), for a new attempt at 1.6030 we could take 1/2 of our positions at 1.5739.

Be short @1.5313 with a stop Loss @1.5455 for a test of 1.4950-4900.

Position 31/07/08

Levels for August 08

It s simple to use, u have one short one long in the uptrend, and one short one long on the downtrend, when the price is reaching the level you enter and the other point of the trend represents the SL. ie
Short eurusd 1.5739 SL 1.5881 or
long eurusd @1.5881 SL 1.5739

It s very easy, then you can, as we do, put filters with EMA's, RSI, MACD....
The most important is to have a strict money management.
Well we will update lots of graph during the next two days