USD/CHF 14/12/08

Daily

USD/CHF trend seems to be a corrective movement, at the present time I can't tell if we are just in a correctionsor if we resumed the long downtrend trend.

The Fibonacci levels

from the 15 July 08 @ 1.0027 and 21/10/08 @ 1.2296
38.2% 1.1430

50.0% 1.1158

61.8% 1.0892

76.4% 1.0552

Le daily close indicates us we broke a triangle on a top and the current movement is going to make a correction.

We are sitting on the EMA 50, and if the market is going back to 1.2020 and close arround this area, our view will be changed.

Last time when we were on EMA 50 we bounced on it.

From Ichimoku rates are dealing above the cloud. The Kijun Sen is crossing with the Tenkan Sen even if we are above the cloud, thing which is telling us we are in a corrective movement. The Chinkou Span is above the cloud, but are sitting on the rate.

The fact that the Span which is sitting on the rate, and the 2 crossing over are indicates us that a corrective movement is coming.

EMA 50, 200 are in uptrend. Rates are on the EMA 50. MACD seems following is movement in direction of his neutral signal, while RSI went out from his overbought area and going to his neutral zone too.

Trend Bullish correction phasis

A trend shift will be seeing at 1.1350.

Rates 1.1769

RES 1.1789 1.1830 1.1924 1.1993 1.2199 1.2255

Support 1.1748 1.1678 1.1490 1.1460 1.1290 1.1250

Weekly

MArket tried to correct the week from 23/11 till last week. We can see it with the two long doji candle. Last week market succeded in the downtrend in closing below the EMA 200. Before that market was bouncing on that levels.

We can imagine that we can retrace lower before bouncing and trying to make a new high, or resuming the bearish trend.

Fibo levels are the same than on daily charts.

Ichimoku are showing uptrend.

While EMA are showing bear trend, the spread is tightening between the EMA50 and 200.

MACD is showing a bull trend as the RSI too

Monthly

Trend is still bear.

If we are closing below the EMA50, and arround here, we could see a retracement to 1.1246 and I am convinced that we are going to test the new low. We broke the triangle in september 2007 by the downside, rates made a new low and bounced in March 2008 to hit the support line of the following triangle pattern as Dow theory definition before bouncing this month. A close above 1.2300 will invalidate the scenario.

My scenario for 2009 is a massive devaluation of the USD against several major currencies, to limit the weight of the debt and the debt interest.... It s going to put under pression all the commodities market, and we are going to see a bounce on commodities prices, and is going to create inflation, and probably hyperinflation, and will bring the FED to contract the credit in increasing FED funds to more than 10%. Volker knows that very well....

If my view is correct Gold is going to burst the 1000 while target will be arround $1 500-1 800

I am more worried about that theory than deflation

Cable Analysis from 10 Dec 14h20 Paris time

Daily

Cable on daily chart is showing that we have probably found a temporary mailto:bottom@%201.4465 the 4 Dec08. Since we have been boucing , and we are in a kind of triangle(purple one).

We could also imagine that we made a bouble bottom at 1.4557(11/13/08) and 1.4465 but nothing are telling us the current trend.

We have to wait the break of 1.4880 before something on the upside, and we have to wait the bounce to 1.4676 on the downside to know if we resumed the trend. If we are breaking the lows of last month and from this month, the target will be 1.4036.

On ichimoku, the Sen are still playing in favor of the downside, the chinkou Sapn is still showing us a bearish trend.

Every indicators are showing a downtrend. We saw a devaluation in 4 month of the pound, even if the downside movement started 1 year ago.

The moving average (EMA 50 and 200) have crossed and are indicating a bear trend too.MACD is in downtrend territory while RSI is swiming in the oversold area.

Weekly

As we were talking on the daily analysis, the area of 1.4550 seems to be the key for a new low, and a test of the important level of 1.4040.

Ichimoku is also indicating a downtrend like on daily analysis.

EMA 50 and EMA 200 have crossed to the downside at the begining of november 08, last time we crossed to the upside was in 2002, so weekly are showing that we could enter in a long bear trend.

It s funny cause there is only a trend which is bear, and MACD and RSI are also showing a downtrend

Monthly

All indicators are showing a downtrend, except the EMA

What is interesting on monthly chart it s the orange line 1.4040 which is playing the role of an important support level.

In graph if we break 1.4550 to the downside, the trend will stay more clear, and the test of 1.4040 will be on the pipe.If 1.3680 is broken too, we could imagine that we will take the stairway to test the 1.07 area the lowest point from 1985.....

But a bounce is possible on a short term

According to my points I am long Cable from 1.4862 SL at 1.6800

EUR/USD from the 10 December @14h00 Paris time

Daily

We are still inside the triangle, but on the resistance . Markets seems to go further, but could be capped by the top @1.3080 and 1.3105 which is the EMA50 (yellow).

In the case of we break 1.3080, the next reisistance is at 1.3260-80 and if the uptrend is following then it could be the way to 1.3870.

In the case of eurusd is going to fell then we are going to see 1.2490 and lower to 1.2120 1.1930 if we break it.

From Ichimoku, the 2 sen crossed (Red and Blue) to the upside but are working under the cloud, as the rates.The Chinkou Span (white) is under the cloud, but it s on the rates. It confirm wa are still in a bear trend.

The moving average are showing a bear trend too, the EMA 50(yellow) is at 1.3102 and last time we reached it, we had a huge bounce back to the main trend. EMA 200(grey) is at 1.4160.

MACD is close to his neutral point and RSI is going out from his oversold territory.

Be long at 1.2970 objective 1.3080,

Our monthly point are giving to us to be

Long at 1.3090 SL 1.2890 for an objective at 1.3480

Be short 1.2890 SL 1.3090 with a target @1.2120

Resistance 1.2970 1.3095 1.3116 1.3280

Support 1.2890 1.2800 1.2670 1.2550

Weekly

EUR/USD made probably a temporary low @1.2329, the week from October 26th, from this time we have been working inside a triangle in testing resistance, and support.

If we break 1.3080 market seems to take the way to 1.3260/80 and as main major target 1.3870. This points is the 61.8% Fibo retracement from 1.4867 (09/21/08) and 1.2329(10/26/08).

The 2 Sen are showing us a bear trend, the span seemed to have bounce but is still below both cloud and rates.

The 2 EMA are still showing a bull trend even if the spread between both have strongly tightening.

The Rsi is trying to get out from the oversold area. MACD seemed to have found a bottom.

But have to wait to see from which side the triangle is going to be broken.

Monthly

We made a doji last month, could indicate an hold on the downside, or the end of the current movement. We bounced on the top of the Ichimoku cloud, we are forming a morning star. If this morning star is working, could bring back the rates much higher than what we are expecting.

The 2 Sen are crossing, but are above the cloud.

The trend is still an uptrend.

If we break 1.3080, then we could have the opportunity to bounce toward 1.3768(38.2%) Fibonacci, 1.4192(50% of Fibo). This level is also the point where the long term trend(pink) from February 2001 then the low from November 2005.

The dow theory is telling that we need to test important resistance to validate them.

In the other case, if we don't arrive to break 1.3080 or 1.3260 we could see a last wave to the downside with 1.1920(EMA 200) as target, and then 1.1640.

EMA50 and 200 are still showing a bullish signal, even if we reached probably the inflexion point

MACD is close to his neutral area after fast bounce from high. Rsi went out from his overbought territory last august and is at the neutral area.

I took a long position @1.2970 with 1.2890 as Stop Loss. I have put my SL at my price now.

Monthly Points