S&P

S&P

On a tapé le haut du canal et nous avons fait une sorte de shooting star peu orthodoxe je le concède.mais on a bien bouncé sur le haut du canal, cela parait logique, too fast too furious, au vue des données économiques actuelles.

Nous sommes dans le cloud, les 2 sens ont croisé à la hausse, le tenkan sen(rouge) est dans le cloud tandis que le Kijun est toujours sous le cloud.
Le span lui est en dessous du cloud mais au dessus des cours.
Nous sommes en consolidation de mouvement
Les moyennes mobiles sont orientées toujours à la baisse EMA 50 (802.69) < EMA 200( 969.95), RSI est en desous de 50 pendant que le MACD est positif, et que nous travaillons au dessus de la moyenne à 50 jours.

Fibo, entre le 6 Mars à 666.79 et le 2 Avril à 845, le marché peut retracer
38.2% 777
50% 756
61.8% 734

D'aprés les points au mois, nous avons



Etre long à 889.27 avec SL 843.57 objectif 950-1013
Etre short à 843.57 avec un SL à 889.27 objectif 752


etre long @752 SL 706.47 obectif 870
etre short @706.47 SL 752 avec comme objectif 660-700

Actuellement nous devrions être short à 843.57 pour un test de 752 qui se trouve être la médiane du canal baissier, et également 50% retracement, nous avons de forte chance de faire cela avant tout autre mouvement haussier, et ce serait qu'une étape dans un éventuel retour d'un trend baissier

Pour garder un trend haussier pour les mois à venir, il serait nécessaire que les banques annoncent
Revenu opérationel en net hausse
Writting down toujours élevés mais probablement le dernier important. En référence au mail de mon pote Stewart d'ICAP sur la liquidité du marché interbancaire, si le marché interbanciare se dégel comme on le voit en ce moment, il dégelera tout les autres, car c'est le marché du CASH

Si le rebond doit durer ce sera par ce biais, sinon c est finito la dolce vita, et le printemps se retransformera en automone, mais j'en doute car les politiques sont de la partie, et le G20 n'aurait pas eu l'effet escompté par les politiques.

Cable

daily

We are working above the cloud, the 2 sen crossed in uptrend, but they are not above the cloud.

The span is above the price and on the top of the cloud all seems in consolidation with a bullish bias.

We are working above the EMA 50 even EMA 200 > EMA 50

Main trend is bearish

MACD and RSI crossed to the upside.

We broke a huge channel(green) by the upside, with target

1.5374 - 1.3502 = 1 872

1.4272 + 1872 = 1.6144

It s theorical but 50% retracement from 1.8667 and 1.3501 at 1.6073

the area of the current bounce go bring the cable to 1.6073-1.6144.

On the fibo expansion from 1.3653 (11/3) to 1.4779 (24/3) and retraced 50% to 1.4108(30/03)

and as we closed above the former top at 4779 the taget are

100% 1.5231

1.618 1.5933 close to the EMA 200 and 50% retracement are from the movement from 1.8667 and 1.3501

Weekly

Market bounced and seems to made a rebound , but all the ichimoku are indicating bear trend

EMA50, EMA 200 are showing downtrend too, RSI is showing bullish divergence, and ADX is showing the end of the downtrend. so we are probably in consolidation.

Mthly

As weekly it s bearish, but look at the japanese candlestick pattern, it s bullish and we had several doji over the last 3 months, short term could reverse to retrace, RSI is going to go out from oversold territory.

EURUSD full time period

Current price 1.34835

4h chart

We are above the cloud, sen crossed and sen are in the cloud. the Span is above the price while we are on the top of the of the cloud. All seems to be bullish

EMA 50> EMA 200 means bull trend, we just crossed the EMA 50, while MACD is >0, and RSI is the buying side, ADX is also showing an uptrend.

Moreover we are on the resistance line, I am convinced to see a test of 1.3850 - 1.43 - 1.45 in the coming weeks.

Daily

We are in the cloud, the 2 sen are in the cloud, span is above rates but under the cloud, all means, we are in a consolidating trend.

EMA50<>

1.4404 is the 100% of the fib expansion from the uptrend movement since March 4th till March 19th, and the 50% retracement low of the March 30th, of movement mentioned just above

It also the area of the resistance line from Sep 22 and Dec 18

MACD and RSI are in uptrend so everything is indicating uptrend short term movement.

Go long from current levels with a SL below 1.3260(weekly point level for the week 6-11 april 09)

Weekly

all ichimoku is indicating bear trend

EMA50>EMA 200 is showing uptrend

We closed just above EMA 200 and we are on the way to retest EMA 50, MACD and RSI are showing tiny bullish divergence, while ADX is showing the end of the downtrend movement.

I am not saying the trend has changed, even I am thinking about it for several fundamental reasons( US needs to have a weak USD to create inflation, inflation will forced pple to buy House, will improve banks balance sheet, they are doing it with money supply with QE)

On long term if we break 1.4404, we are going to retest 4719 - 4867 but don't know if we are going to break it, if will go there and break it weekly charts will tuen bullsih and massive with 1.60 as first target and 2.0000 next year.
US and Europe doesn't have the same problem, and will not have the same social model.