GBP/USD 11 January 09

Daily

The price are under the cloud price are just sitting below the bottom of the cloud, the 2 sen are
showing donwtrend as they are below the cloud, and Kijun Sen is above Tenkan Sen(red).

Chinkou Span is working below the cloud, but is above the price now.

Ichimoku are showing bear trend even if we are close to the bottom of the cloud.

The EMA are showing downtrend too, but MACD and RSI are showing both bullish divergence,

cable seems to be capped at the present time by the EMA 50 @ 1.5330

If we arrive to break this level we could have traget based on Fibonacci( from 25 Oct08 @ 1.8667 and 31 Dec 08 @ 1.4349).

38.2% 1.5990

50% 1.6500

61.8% 1.7010

But before that we have to breakout 1.5330 and also 1.5725, but I am sure that if we break 1.5330, we are going to errase 1.5730 area.

Current price 1.5160

Long cable @ 1.5329 SL 1.4925

I will not open a short position before the break out of 1.4357 this month.

Weekly

It s simple every analysis is bearish

Just an observation, in using only the ichimoku, we ought to be short from 1.9726 from 27 July week and we should have been stay short even today.

EUR/USD analysis 11 Jan 09

4 h chart is just here to show you the channel where we are at the present time, and for the quaterly it s just to show you on the ellipsis the perfect shooting star on all time high, a school....

case

So here we go

Daily

On daily we are on top of the cloud but inside. The two sen are above the cloud and are on uptrend even if we are dealing under the Kijun Sen(blue one).

the chinkou Span (in white) are above the price but are still in the cloud.

Ichimoku are giving mix signals.

The 2 EMA50(yellow) and EMA 200(grey) are showing downtrend. Price are on the EMA50 area closed on Friday just below the EMA 50 (at 20 pips).

MACD is still in positive territory while RSI is on his neutral area.

On Fibo last movement we retraced between 50% and 61.8% from the last movement from 28 October 08 at 1.2329 and 18 Dec 08 @ 1.4719.

In my opinion trend is still bullish if we stay above the 1.3230 area. If we break 1.3230 I think we will take the ride to 1.2120 and probably lower to 1.1640 but I have too much doubt about that scenario, as I already wrote here, I am more in favor of a massive USD devaluation over the coming month, but I have to admit that I don't know when it will start, but be sure that it will happen when we will realised that recue plan will require more and more fund, and it will more and more difficult to fund the debt for government.

I am going to watch closely the % of unemployment the TIC, and the overall US debt. We can't continue to create money like that without inflation, probably it will happen in a second part of 2009 or early 2010 but it will happen.

Current 1.3475

Long at 1.3339 SL 1.3339

Res 1.3500 1.3620 1.3860 1.4100 1.4360 1.4710

Support 1.3300 1.3250 1.3051 1.2815 1.2545 1.2316

Weekly

We are below the cloud, the Tenkan Sen(red) and Kijun Sen (blue) are showing downtrend.

The Chinkou Span is below both price and cloud.

All Ichimoku analysis are showing downtrend.

The 2 moving average are still showing uptrend. We currently closed the week just below the EMA 200.MACD is still recovering to his neutral signal, while RSI is still in the selling area.

From Fibo I will make 2 analysis one from the larger movement and one from the short term.

Long term

From the 13 July 08 Week at 1.6038 and 26 Oct 08 week at 1.2329.

We reached 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the 14 Dec 08 week. This means we probably resumed the downtrend, but generaly correction are made in in 3 movement one up, one down, and one up, but here we have only one leg to the upside and one leg to the downside which the current movement, so it s the reason why I am making another Fibonacci retracement.

From the 26 October 08 week low at 1.2329 and Dec 14 week high at 1.4719 we retarced between 50 and 61.8%.

For me the trend is bearish even if we can consider till 1.3250 a possibility of a bounce.

Monthly

The price are above the cloud, the two sen are at the level while they are sitting above the cloud.

The chinkou Span is above both cloud and price.

Trend is still bullish.

The 2 EMA are showing are still in a bullish trend, MACD is above his neutral signals and RSI is also in his neutral signals.

Price are on the EMA 50 @ 1.3475 at the present time and we made a very nice morning star on the monthly chart.

In the case I am wrong and if we are coming back to the 1.2329 the long term trend could shift to a bearish and long term target could be seen at 1.1010 from the equality of the movement from 1.6019-1.2329 =0.3709, and if 1.4719 is the top of second movement we could have

1.4719-0.3709= 1.1010

long cable @1.5333 SL 1.4952

stopped at my price on usdchf.
Going to re-open arround 1.1205 in case

Short USDSDG 1.4682 SL 1.4995

Short USDJPY 93.10 SL 95.42,
SL on eurusd at my price 1.3339
Short USDCHF 1.1058

Stopped on USDJPY -125 pips

Open a long EURUSD @1.3339 SL 1.2753
We are taking 1/4 lot on the position due to large SL

Position USDJPY

I put the SL on USDJPY @94.25 in case

Position

Short USD/JPY @ 93.10 SL 95.42

EUR/JPY update

HEllo all

I am waiting to see this triangle on 4h eurjpy to open a position on that pair

EUR/JPY 04 January 2009

Daily

We are inside the cloud but the 2 sen crossed to the upside while they are in the cloud.

the span is above the rates but under the cloud.

Mix signals are coming from the Ichimoku

the 2 EMA are showing downtrend we are currently on the EMA50 area, trying to take a clear trend. MACD turned in uptrend area, while RSI si below his neutral area

Weekly

All the ichimoku are showing the downtrend.

The 2 EMA have crossed to the downside in the last week of November 2008.

MACD is showing downtrend while RSI is close to getting out from is oversold area.

Resistance on the upside could be seen @ 130.80 and to the downside @118.28.

Monthly

We are working below the cloud, the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are working just above the top of the cloud. The span si inside the cloud, but under the rates.

We have mix signals from the ichimoku

We can calculate fibonacci from July 2008 @169.96 and October 08 @113.63, and we obtain

38.2% 134.92

50% 141.70

61.8% 148.14

76.8% 156.90

The 2 EMA are still showing uptrend even if the gap is thiner and thiner. MAcd is showing downtrend, and RSI bounced on his overbought signal level

I think EURJPY is already in a correction of this huge develeraging movement. We lost in 4 month in about 5 700 pips, I will not be surpised if we see a correction to the 141.70 area, but it s long term view, could take several month because I think volatility could drop in a significant manier over the coming month.

EURGBP 04/01/09

Daily

The 2 sen are showing uptrend and they are above the cloud, rates are working above the cloud

the span is also showing a bull trend on daily chart.

On daily candle we bounced back from an important multi year corridor. I will not be surpised if we bounced a little from the 0.9800 before an attempt to the psychological area of 1.0000.

The 2 EMA are showing a bull trend. MACD have probably topped. RSI is absolutely overbought.We can draw a support line on the RSI and if we break that line we could see a huge correction.

I am more in favour of a correction than something else, be bullish at that level is too dangerous in risk ratio. there is more room to the downside than to the upside,

Trend Bullish

Weekly

Rates are working above the cloud, like the 2 sen, and the Kijun and Tenkan Sen have crossed .

The chinkou Span is working also above the cloud and rates.

Ichimoku studies are showing uptrend.

The 2 EMA 's are also showing a bull trend, the MACD is in above his neutral signal, while long term RSI is amazingly overbought.

On candle analysis the weekly is showing a doji which could lead to a correction before resuming the main bullish trend.

fibo from 0.7693 from 19 october week to 0.9804 from 28 dec are giving

38.2% 0.9000

50% 0.8750

61.8% 0.8500

76.8% 0.8183

current price @ 0.9567

I think the risk ratio is interesting to take a short arround our current level with a SL @ 0.9760

so in about 200 pips sl for a return of 560 pips, the risk ratio is good in my opinion

Monthly

We are in a long Channel we hit the top last December @0.9804, on yearly we saw eurgbp increasing by 29.5% from the open to the close.

It s a simple devaluation of a currency, and that s what I am expecting to see on the USD this year.

We are working above the cloud, the 2 sen crossed and are above the cloud. The span is working above cloud and rates, everything is showing bull trend.

The 2 moving average are showing also uptrend, MACD is in uptrend territory, while RSI is extremely overbought.

All the analysis is showing uptrend, but the channel was reached and I will bet more on a retracement before an attempt to the parity. I will see more an attempt on the parity in March April when the bonuses will be at 0 or close to 0 and the effect on the British GDP but I really doubt we are going to try the parity todays.

USD/CHF 03 January09

We were quite happy on the USD/CHF, the pair followed the way we thought in December, the market resumed his long term downtrend and we took in about 1550 pips in 2 positions short 1.1996 closed at 1.0775 and short from 1.0946 closed 1.0628

The test of the former support was the signal of the bounce to the downside. On monthly chart we are in a corridor and in my opinion market is going to make a new low on the pair in 2009.

Daily analysis

Ichimoku

We are working under the cloud, the 2 sen( Kijun Sen blue, Tenkan Sen red) crossed, and the chinkou span(white) is working under the cloud and also under the rates. All the studies on daily are showing a downtrend.

On daily candle, we are in a correction we could coming back to the 1.1130 - 1.1205 before collapsing once again.

The moving average are showing (yellow EMA 50 grey EMA 200) still uptrend, but the gap between the 2 moving average is becoming thiner and thiner.

We are working under both EMA. (EMA 50 is at 1.1380 while EMA 200 1.1152)

Market could bounce to that levels.

The MACD has crossed and RSI too in December, we dropped sharply on both indicators.

Trend is bearish.

We are in a correction which could go up to 1.1330 before resuming the downtrend.

Res 1.1079 1.1205 1.1330 1.1480 1.1550.

Support 1.0688 1.0625 1.0539 1.0410 1.0169 1.0000

Weekly

Ichimoku

Rates are in the cloud, we have already bounced two times on the bottom of the cloud.

The Tenkan and Kijun gap is reducing and the 2 Sen are working above the cloud.

The Span is dealing under the cloud, but above the rates.

It s a mix signal sent from the USDCHF on weekly, We could see a bounce due to the candle formation to 1.1175 area .

The 2 EMA are showing the downtrend. The rates bounced on 61.8% of Fibonacci from (0.9636 bottom from the week of 16/03/08 and 1.2296 the top from 16 November 08 week).

The MACD is still in the uptrend, while RSI is in selling area.

On weekly chart, USDCHF have probably bounced the last week of December. Even if my view is bearish, there is too much mix signals, so I prefer to stay outside and waiting signals.

Bullish signals could be seen at 1.1330.

There is no divergence seen on MACD or RSI

Monthly

We are working under the cloud, the 2 sen are very close and almost crossing while they are under the cloud.The chinkou span is under the cloud, and under the rates.

The ichimoku are showing us a downtrend.

The 2 moving average are still showing us a downtrend. MACD is under his neutral signal, and RSI is still in sold territory but above the oversold area.

1.1724 (green line) seems to be a good level to enter long in case, but I am still forecast a new low in 2009 above the 0.9636.

Points for January 2009

All the best for 2009

Happy new year, and all the best for 2009.
Will try to update 2 times per month the blog, begining and on mid month.

So 2009 is going to be the year of all the danger, we have the reset on Subprime, USD devaluation, and probably in 2010-2011 hyperinflation. I am still negative on USD as their economy has failed.
Remember the last quarter of 2008.
In one month, Freddy and Fanny was rescued, same for AIG, and for Lehman we know what happened....
The easing policy is the only solution of the FED now, but as all central banks have injected billions and billions , nothing happened, banks doesn't want to lend money on interbank market, look at the LIBOR on O/N and on 3 months, there is no cash offer from the month, banks doesn't want to lend to other bank exemple in USD OverNight rate is between 0-0.25% and 3 mth 1.47 there is something funny, market should be at 0.40-0.43 in normal case.

The key issue this year is going to be like last year, watch the interbank market.
Governement bonds are also going to be the market, I am sure that we are going to see a major reversal on Treasuries rates are too low....

In fact market is betting on deflation like in Japan in early 90's, or Japan and the States are not the same, the USA have the money, and it s here the big difference, what Japan tried to do 20 years ago was not possible as all the commodities prices are in USD. We are going to see inflation probably in 2010 by commodities prices as all countries are creating a kind of New deal.

but what governement forgot is that more than 60% of our GDP are coming from Consumers, and banks are not lending to consumers, so the demand is going to be weaker and weaker, and GDP will stay low.

Will try to have times to develop my global view.

So whishing u once again a nice 2009 year and be careful

USD/CHF 14/12/08

Daily

USD/CHF trend seems to be a corrective movement, at the present time I can't tell if we are just in a correctionsor if we resumed the long downtrend trend.

The Fibonacci levels

from the 15 July 08 @ 1.0027 and 21/10/08 @ 1.2296
38.2% 1.1430

50.0% 1.1158

61.8% 1.0892

76.4% 1.0552

Le daily close indicates us we broke a triangle on a top and the current movement is going to make a correction.

We are sitting on the EMA 50, and if the market is going back to 1.2020 and close arround this area, our view will be changed.

Last time when we were on EMA 50 we bounced on it.

From Ichimoku rates are dealing above the cloud. The Kijun Sen is crossing with the Tenkan Sen even if we are above the cloud, thing which is telling us we are in a corrective movement. The Chinkou Span is above the cloud, but are sitting on the rate.

The fact that the Span which is sitting on the rate, and the 2 crossing over are indicates us that a corrective movement is coming.

EMA 50, 200 are in uptrend. Rates are on the EMA 50. MACD seems following is movement in direction of his neutral signal, while RSI went out from his overbought area and going to his neutral zone too.

Trend Bullish correction phasis

A trend shift will be seeing at 1.1350.

Rates 1.1769

RES 1.1789 1.1830 1.1924 1.1993 1.2199 1.2255

Support 1.1748 1.1678 1.1490 1.1460 1.1290 1.1250

Weekly

MArket tried to correct the week from 23/11 till last week. We can see it with the two long doji candle. Last week market succeded in the downtrend in closing below the EMA 200. Before that market was bouncing on that levels.

We can imagine that we can retrace lower before bouncing and trying to make a new high, or resuming the bearish trend.

Fibo levels are the same than on daily charts.

Ichimoku are showing uptrend.

While EMA are showing bear trend, the spread is tightening between the EMA50 and 200.

MACD is showing a bull trend as the RSI too

Monthly

Trend is still bear.

If we are closing below the EMA50, and arround here, we could see a retracement to 1.1246 and I am convinced that we are going to test the new low. We broke the triangle in september 2007 by the downside, rates made a new low and bounced in March 2008 to hit the support line of the following triangle pattern as Dow theory definition before bouncing this month. A close above 1.2300 will invalidate the scenario.

My scenario for 2009 is a massive devaluation of the USD against several major currencies, to limit the weight of the debt and the debt interest.... It s going to put under pression all the commodities market, and we are going to see a bounce on commodities prices, and is going to create inflation, and probably hyperinflation, and will bring the FED to contract the credit in increasing FED funds to more than 10%. Volker knows that very well....

If my view is correct Gold is going to burst the 1000 while target will be arround $1 500-1 800

I am more worried about that theory than deflation

Cable Analysis from 10 Dec 14h20 Paris time

Daily

Cable on daily chart is showing that we have probably found a temporary mailto:bottom@%201.4465 the 4 Dec08. Since we have been boucing , and we are in a kind of triangle(purple one).

We could also imagine that we made a bouble bottom at 1.4557(11/13/08) and 1.4465 but nothing are telling us the current trend.

We have to wait the break of 1.4880 before something on the upside, and we have to wait the bounce to 1.4676 on the downside to know if we resumed the trend. If we are breaking the lows of last month and from this month, the target will be 1.4036.

On ichimoku, the Sen are still playing in favor of the downside, the chinkou Sapn is still showing us a bearish trend.

Every indicators are showing a downtrend. We saw a devaluation in 4 month of the pound, even if the downside movement started 1 year ago.

The moving average (EMA 50 and 200) have crossed and are indicating a bear trend too.MACD is in downtrend territory while RSI is swiming in the oversold area.

Weekly

As we were talking on the daily analysis, the area of 1.4550 seems to be the key for a new low, and a test of the important level of 1.4040.

Ichimoku is also indicating a downtrend like on daily analysis.

EMA 50 and EMA 200 have crossed to the downside at the begining of november 08, last time we crossed to the upside was in 2002, so weekly are showing that we could enter in a long bear trend.

It s funny cause there is only a trend which is bear, and MACD and RSI are also showing a downtrend

Monthly

All indicators are showing a downtrend, except the EMA

What is interesting on monthly chart it s the orange line 1.4040 which is playing the role of an important support level.

In graph if we break 1.4550 to the downside, the trend will stay more clear, and the test of 1.4040 will be on the pipe.If 1.3680 is broken too, we could imagine that we will take the stairway to test the 1.07 area the lowest point from 1985.....

But a bounce is possible on a short term

According to my points I am long Cable from 1.4862 SL at 1.6800

EUR/USD from the 10 December @14h00 Paris time

Daily

We are still inside the triangle, but on the resistance . Markets seems to go further, but could be capped by the top @1.3080 and 1.3105 which is the EMA50 (yellow).

In the case of we break 1.3080, the next reisistance is at 1.3260-80 and if the uptrend is following then it could be the way to 1.3870.

In the case of eurusd is going to fell then we are going to see 1.2490 and lower to 1.2120 1.1930 if we break it.

From Ichimoku, the 2 sen crossed (Red and Blue) to the upside but are working under the cloud, as the rates.The Chinkou Span (white) is under the cloud, but it s on the rates. It confirm wa are still in a bear trend.

The moving average are showing a bear trend too, the EMA 50(yellow) is at 1.3102 and last time we reached it, we had a huge bounce back to the main trend. EMA 200(grey) is at 1.4160.

MACD is close to his neutral point and RSI is going out from his oversold territory.

Be long at 1.2970 objective 1.3080,

Our monthly point are giving to us to be

Long at 1.3090 SL 1.2890 for an objective at 1.3480

Be short 1.2890 SL 1.3090 with a target @1.2120

Resistance 1.2970 1.3095 1.3116 1.3280

Support 1.2890 1.2800 1.2670 1.2550

Weekly

EUR/USD made probably a temporary low @1.2329, the week from October 26th, from this time we have been working inside a triangle in testing resistance, and support.

If we break 1.3080 market seems to take the way to 1.3260/80 and as main major target 1.3870. This points is the 61.8% Fibo retracement from 1.4867 (09/21/08) and 1.2329(10/26/08).

The 2 Sen are showing us a bear trend, the span seemed to have bounce but is still below both cloud and rates.

The 2 EMA are still showing a bull trend even if the spread between both have strongly tightening.

The Rsi is trying to get out from the oversold area. MACD seemed to have found a bottom.

But have to wait to see from which side the triangle is going to be broken.

Monthly

We made a doji last month, could indicate an hold on the downside, or the end of the current movement. We bounced on the top of the Ichimoku cloud, we are forming a morning star. If this morning star is working, could bring back the rates much higher than what we are expecting.

The 2 Sen are crossing, but are above the cloud.

The trend is still an uptrend.

If we break 1.3080, then we could have the opportunity to bounce toward 1.3768(38.2%) Fibonacci, 1.4192(50% of Fibo). This level is also the point where the long term trend(pink) from February 2001 then the low from November 2005.

The dow theory is telling that we need to test important resistance to validate them.

In the other case, if we don't arrive to break 1.3080 or 1.3260 we could see a last wave to the downside with 1.1920(EMA 200) as target, and then 1.1640.

EMA50 and 200 are still showing a bullish signal, even if we reached probably the inflexion point

MACD is close to his neutral area after fast bounce from high. Rsi went out from his overbought territory last august and is at the neutral area.

I took a long position @1.2970 with 1.2890 as Stop Loss. I have put my SL at my price now.

Monthly Points

positions

Stopped on eurusd -204 , and usdchf -128

long cable 1.5359 following the october mthy point