USD/CHF 14/12/08

Daily

USD/CHF trend seems to be a corrective movement, at the present time I can't tell if we are just in a correctionsor if we resumed the long downtrend trend.

The Fibonacci levels

from the 15 July 08 @ 1.0027 and 21/10/08 @ 1.2296
38.2% 1.1430

50.0% 1.1158

61.8% 1.0892

76.4% 1.0552

Le daily close indicates us we broke a triangle on a top and the current movement is going to make a correction.

We are sitting on the EMA 50, and if the market is going back to 1.2020 and close arround this area, our view will be changed.

Last time when we were on EMA 50 we bounced on it.

From Ichimoku rates are dealing above the cloud. The Kijun Sen is crossing with the Tenkan Sen even if we are above the cloud, thing which is telling us we are in a corrective movement. The Chinkou Span is above the cloud, but are sitting on the rate.

The fact that the Span which is sitting on the rate, and the 2 crossing over are indicates us that a corrective movement is coming.

EMA 50, 200 are in uptrend. Rates are on the EMA 50. MACD seems following is movement in direction of his neutral signal, while RSI went out from his overbought area and going to his neutral zone too.

Trend Bullish correction phasis

A trend shift will be seeing at 1.1350.

Rates 1.1769

RES 1.1789 1.1830 1.1924 1.1993 1.2199 1.2255

Support 1.1748 1.1678 1.1490 1.1460 1.1290 1.1250

Weekly

MArket tried to correct the week from 23/11 till last week. We can see it with the two long doji candle. Last week market succeded in the downtrend in closing below the EMA 200. Before that market was bouncing on that levels.

We can imagine that we can retrace lower before bouncing and trying to make a new high, or resuming the bearish trend.

Fibo levels are the same than on daily charts.

Ichimoku are showing uptrend.

While EMA are showing bear trend, the spread is tightening between the EMA50 and 200.

MACD is showing a bull trend as the RSI too

Monthly

Trend is still bear.

If we are closing below the EMA50, and arround here, we could see a retracement to 1.1246 and I am convinced that we are going to test the new low. We broke the triangle in september 2007 by the downside, rates made a new low and bounced in March 2008 to hit the support line of the following triangle pattern as Dow theory definition before bouncing this month. A close above 1.2300 will invalidate the scenario.

My scenario for 2009 is a massive devaluation of the USD against several major currencies, to limit the weight of the debt and the debt interest.... It s going to put under pression all the commodities market, and we are going to see a bounce on commodities prices, and is going to create inflation, and probably hyperinflation, and will bring the FED to contract the credit in increasing FED funds to more than 10%. Volker knows that very well....

If my view is correct Gold is going to burst the 1000 while target will be arround $1 500-1 800

I am more worried about that theory than deflation

Cable Analysis from 10 Dec 14h20 Paris time

Daily

Cable on daily chart is showing that we have probably found a temporary mailto:bottom@%201.4465 the 4 Dec08. Since we have been boucing , and we are in a kind of triangle(purple one).

We could also imagine that we made a bouble bottom at 1.4557(11/13/08) and 1.4465 but nothing are telling us the current trend.

We have to wait the break of 1.4880 before something on the upside, and we have to wait the bounce to 1.4676 on the downside to know if we resumed the trend. If we are breaking the lows of last month and from this month, the target will be 1.4036.

On ichimoku, the Sen are still playing in favor of the downside, the chinkou Sapn is still showing us a bearish trend.

Every indicators are showing a downtrend. We saw a devaluation in 4 month of the pound, even if the downside movement started 1 year ago.

The moving average (EMA 50 and 200) have crossed and are indicating a bear trend too.MACD is in downtrend territory while RSI is swiming in the oversold area.

Weekly

As we were talking on the daily analysis, the area of 1.4550 seems to be the key for a new low, and a test of the important level of 1.4040.

Ichimoku is also indicating a downtrend like on daily analysis.

EMA 50 and EMA 200 have crossed to the downside at the begining of november 08, last time we crossed to the upside was in 2002, so weekly are showing that we could enter in a long bear trend.

It s funny cause there is only a trend which is bear, and MACD and RSI are also showing a downtrend

Monthly

All indicators are showing a downtrend, except the EMA

What is interesting on monthly chart it s the orange line 1.4040 which is playing the role of an important support level.

In graph if we break 1.4550 to the downside, the trend will stay more clear, and the test of 1.4040 will be on the pipe.If 1.3680 is broken too, we could imagine that we will take the stairway to test the 1.07 area the lowest point from 1985.....

But a bounce is possible on a short term

According to my points I am long Cable from 1.4862 SL at 1.6800

EUR/USD from the 10 December @14h00 Paris time

Daily

We are still inside the triangle, but on the resistance . Markets seems to go further, but could be capped by the top @1.3080 and 1.3105 which is the EMA50 (yellow).

In the case of we break 1.3080, the next reisistance is at 1.3260-80 and if the uptrend is following then it could be the way to 1.3870.

In the case of eurusd is going to fell then we are going to see 1.2490 and lower to 1.2120 1.1930 if we break it.

From Ichimoku, the 2 sen crossed (Red and Blue) to the upside but are working under the cloud, as the rates.The Chinkou Span (white) is under the cloud, but it s on the rates. It confirm wa are still in a bear trend.

The moving average are showing a bear trend too, the EMA 50(yellow) is at 1.3102 and last time we reached it, we had a huge bounce back to the main trend. EMA 200(grey) is at 1.4160.

MACD is close to his neutral point and RSI is going out from his oversold territory.

Be long at 1.2970 objective 1.3080,

Our monthly point are giving to us to be

Long at 1.3090 SL 1.2890 for an objective at 1.3480

Be short 1.2890 SL 1.3090 with a target @1.2120

Resistance 1.2970 1.3095 1.3116 1.3280

Support 1.2890 1.2800 1.2670 1.2550

Weekly

EUR/USD made probably a temporary low @1.2329, the week from October 26th, from this time we have been working inside a triangle in testing resistance, and support.

If we break 1.3080 market seems to take the way to 1.3260/80 and as main major target 1.3870. This points is the 61.8% Fibo retracement from 1.4867 (09/21/08) and 1.2329(10/26/08).

The 2 Sen are showing us a bear trend, the span seemed to have bounce but is still below both cloud and rates.

The 2 EMA are still showing a bull trend even if the spread between both have strongly tightening.

The Rsi is trying to get out from the oversold area. MACD seemed to have found a bottom.

But have to wait to see from which side the triangle is going to be broken.

Monthly

We made a doji last month, could indicate an hold on the downside, or the end of the current movement. We bounced on the top of the Ichimoku cloud, we are forming a morning star. If this morning star is working, could bring back the rates much higher than what we are expecting.

The 2 Sen are crossing, but are above the cloud.

The trend is still an uptrend.

If we break 1.3080, then we could have the opportunity to bounce toward 1.3768(38.2%) Fibonacci, 1.4192(50% of Fibo). This level is also the point where the long term trend(pink) from February 2001 then the low from November 2005.

The dow theory is telling that we need to test important resistance to validate them.

In the other case, if we don't arrive to break 1.3080 or 1.3260 we could see a last wave to the downside with 1.1920(EMA 200) as target, and then 1.1640.

EMA50 and 200 are still showing a bullish signal, even if we reached probably the inflexion point

MACD is close to his neutral area after fast bounce from high. Rsi went out from his overbought territory last august and is at the neutral area.

I took a long position @1.2970 with 1.2890 as Stop Loss. I have put my SL at my price now.

Monthly Points

positions

Stopped on eurusd -204 , and usdchf -128

long cable 1.5359 following the october mthy point

Positions 27 Nov

long eurusd 1.2941 SL 1.2737
short usdchf 1.1962 SL 1.2090

Positions

I was stopped on my

eurusd 1.2874 0 pips
usdchf 1.2000 0 pips
usdjpy 95.20 -120 pips
eurjpy 122.72 -100 pips
and just closed my long NZDUSD @5500 +71 pips

Total - 149 pips

Positions 24 Nov

Long eurusd 1.2874
long usd/jpy 96.40
long eurjpy 123.72
short usd/chf 1.2004
long nzd/usd 54.29

Was stopped Friday on

EUR/JPY @my price so 0
USD/JPY @ 94.30 +212
AUD/JPY @58.69 +250
GBP/JPY @139.07 +428 pips

Total +890 pips

was stopped on usd/sgd last thursday -231 pips and was stopped out on short eur/chf -188 pips

short eur/jpy 121.13 SL 96.40

short usd/jpy 96.425 SL 121.13

short aud/jpy 61.195 SL 61.17

short gbp/jpy 143.357 SL 143.30

Position

opened a short eur/chf @1.5140 SL 1.5328

Positions

Open

short eur/jpy 121.13
short usd/jpy 96.425
short aud/jpy 61.195
short gbp/jpy 143.357

Positions

I have close all the positions as the market is totally mad....

close long eur/jpy @ 122.185 -50 pips
close long usdjpy @ 96.93 +5 pips
close eur/usd @1.2690 0 pips
close eur/chf 1.5254 +120 pips


total +75 pips

still short usd/sgd

Position

was stoped on eurusd - 75 pips and audjpy -83 pips

Took another long eurusd @2631 SL 2566

position

long eurusd 1.2690 SL 1.2615

Positions

long eur/jpy 122.685 SL 121.10
long usd/jpy 96.88 SL 96.00
long AUD/JPY 63.515 sL 62.68
still holding the positions

Long EUR/CHF 1.5144 SL 1.4928
short USD/SGD@1.5051 SL 1.5305

Positions

I was stopped on USDCHF -74 pips, stopped on USDJPY -155 pips and I have booked my gain on eurgbp +154 pips.

I have opened a new position

Long EUR/CHF@1.5144
and I am still short USD/SGD@1.5051

Position

short usd/chf 1.1864 SL 1.1938
long usd/jpy 97.91 SL 96.36
short usd/sgd 1.5051 SL 1.5305
short eur/gbp 0.8689 SL 0.8639

Positions

short eur/usd 1.2673 closed at 1.2513 +160 pips
short gbp/jpy 151.28 closed @142.23 +905 pips
short eurj/py 122.28 closed @ 119.60 +268 pips
short aud/usd 0.6553 closed @0.6302 +251 pips
long eur/gbp 0.8196 closed @0.8317 +121 pips


total +1705 pips

Message

Sorry will try to make updates, but was very busy over the last weeks, will try to keep the blog updated in the future.

Positions

short eur/usd 1.2673
short gbp/jpy 151.28
short eurj/py 122.06
short aud/usd 0.6553
long eur/gbp 0.8196

Positions for November 08

AUD/USD

long @0.7020 SL 0.6870

Positions

long eurusd @1.3483 SL 1.3354
long cable 1.7319 SL 1.7140
short usdchf 1.1355 SL 1.1490

EURUSD and USDCHF

I have close EURUSD @1.3564 +40 pips and closed USDCHF @1.1358 at my price so 0, we are still short cable
Market is totally incredible, and I prefered to square the position in taking some profit.

Cable

Morning all,

Take a long position GBP/USD @ 1.7461 SL 1.7160

stopped on eurusd and on usdchf

Have re open a long eurusd@ 1.3524 SL 1.3580 and short usdchf@ 1.1358 SL 1.1450

EUR/USD

I have add eurusd now my avg is at 1.3648

US index daily chart

Same view as USD/CHF, we have strong bearish divergence on MACD and RSI on daily chart.

Yesterday, several central bank cut their main interest rate, to stop money market freezing.

I think if we find or found a bottom on stocks, we could see a stock rally til the US election and extended til xsmas. This could bring opeartors to square their long T Bonds or T bills positions, so we could see a weaker USD on the coming weeks

USD/CHF daily chart

We are short from 1.1309, I have cut my first entry as I was not feeling the european morning session.

On daily analysis the 2 sen crossed on the upside, we are dealing above the cloud, and span is working on the downside but above the rates, and the cloud. All seems bullish.

But if we are taking times to analyse the moving average, and candlestick formation, we are watching interesting thing, we are working above the moving average, but the candlestick pattern is an bearish engulfment from yesterday, and we have the confirmation today, seems market is reversing at the present time, and there is also two things which is helping me to choose this way is the both indicators, MACD and RSI are showing bearish divergence .

These 3 elements are telling me that we can go first arround 1.1180 1.1080 1.0990-1.1000

Have initiate 2 small positions
long eur/usd @1.3668 SL 3500
short usd/chf @1.1309 SL 1.1390

Positions

I have closed my USDCHF at my price 1.1357
I have close GBPUSD at my price 1.7496

It s stinking too much, prefer to watch before to open new positions

Pösition

Short USDCHF from 1.1357 and long cable @ 1.7497

USD/JPY

Same outlook than last month, JPY is strong for 2 reasons, one is carry trade are reducing due to uncertainty and Japanese banks were not in subprime. The only risk for Japanese banks are the counterparty risk with Lehman, but I heard was not a lot in about 400 or 500 Mios for the biggest.

On monthly chart we are working in a wonderful triangle. We are working under the cloud, the 2 sen are showing dontrend, and span is working under the cloud, and under the rates, all the view in long term is very bearish.

In term of EMA we are working under all the moving average, MACD and RSI are working below the neutral area.

support are seeing arround 101.81, 101.20, 100.00, 98.90

On weekly chart, it s the same analysis than in monthly, averything is showing downtrend

MACD is crossing neutral area, and we are closed to enter in oversold area on RSI 39...

US index mth

Well lets talk about USD index
As we saw last weeks, there is a flight to quality assets, american investors took back their investments from all arround the world to put them in the best safe asset which stay T Bonds, and T bills, they are still the most liquid safer assets. This is why USD have been strong over the last weeks.
In monthly chart we are dealing under the cloud, the 2 sen are in a downtrend, span is working under the cloud, and under the rates. All on monthly are showing a USD downtrend.
We are dealing under EMA 50 and 200, and we are very close to the EMA 540 @82.70
We have retraced 50% of the movement from 92.53(Nov05) til 71.06 (april 08).
We could see a strong resistance on the EMA 50 level, if we break it we could go to 84.20 area which is the 61.8% retracement from the levels I said, and moreover we will be on the top of the small channel.
RSI came back from oversold levels but still in donwtrend area, while MACD is worried me a lot. As you can see there is a wonderful bullish divergence on monthly MACD. The coming month will giving to us a better vision.
Now on fundamentals, I am more worried on USD for several reasons,

1. The twin Deficit is increasing
2. Unemplyement rate is increasing
3. Consumer credit is dropping
4. Consummer spending is also dropping
5. The current rate of the USD will have negative impact on exports
6. GDP must go much lower due to the export and less consumption
7. Real Estate is going to stay weak
8. The debt which is increasing more and more
9. Banks are going to improve their liquidity ratio and equity capital than giving new loans to fund the economy

USD/NOK weekly

This is a weekly chart,

We are working above the cloud, the 2 sen are on the way to cross to the upside even if we have time to do it, span is trying to cross the rates on the upside.

It s still bearish on weekly chart even if there is sign of a stronger USD, if we break the chanel resistance is seeing at 6.7960, 6.8150, 6.8636, on the other side it s 5.7200, 5.5550, 5.3320

We are on the top of a long term channel, we could see a bounce from these levels to see a stronger NOK, but think we have to wait til next week to see if we didn't break to the upside, oil is still under pressure, so could see a stronger USDNOK

We are working above all the EMA which is bullish, MACD and RSI shift to bullish trend, but we are on the limit of overbought period on RSI long term.

We can also say that we are close to reach 50% retracement from 7.7146(End of August 03) 4.9460(april 08)

In 6 months we retraced in about 50% of the 4.5 years......

I am more in a favour of a correction from the current level in case of usd correction, in the other case we are going to the resistance that I gave you above

Be short @6.0074 for 5.7104 test with a SL @6.1560

Position

We were stopped on eurusd, and eurjpy. I am going to update the files in the matinee, same with all the chart analysis over the day and will finish tomorrow probably.

Cable

On monthly chart, we are in the cloud, in september rates were closed to reach the EMA 200 @ 1.7380. If

The 2 sen crossed last august, the span dropped too to the rates, and it broke the rates in September.
Next important support is seeing at the bottom of the cloud arround 1.7040. This level is also
the bottom of November 2005.
So currently the 2 sen have crossed, the span is working under the rates but above the cloud, and as we said above we are in the cloud.
On EMA we are between the EMA 50 and 200, MACD crossed last month and RSI too, it s bearsih.
Even if we are bullish on EURUSD, I think Cable is going to be very difficult to forecast over the coming month. The same crisis is hitting both England and the USA. I am more worried about england than the States, in fact England is driving by financial services, and today it s difficult to forecast the end of the crisis.
By end of crisis, I think banks are safe now with all the measures that politics made. I think we are coming in a huge recession, as banks are going to improve their liquidity ratio and their equity capital than lend money to small firms and main street people, firms are going to lay off, consumer spending will continue to decline as consumer credit will stay low..... and the vicious circle is turning.



In weekly chart everything is bear on the ichimoku, and all the moving average is showing downside movement.
MACD have crossed in early January as cable made is top last november. From January til July cable was ranging, we can sse on monthly chart the 7 doji.
RSI 39 is becoming oversold on weekly chart.

On daily it s the same than in weekly all indicators are bearish, we will not open a position when rates are going to cross our point. We are going to be very vigilent over the coming weeks.

EUR/USD october

On monthly chart, we are still in the uptrend, we are working above the cloud, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen are still oriented on the upside. The Chinkou span, is working above both rates and the cloud.

From graphic, and moving average, the situation is the same even if we are attracting to the EMA 50 (1.3498) we are above EMA50 and 200.

MACD is till showing uptrend, and we are on the bought situation reagrding the RSI. RSI 39 broke last august the overbought limit.

Weekly chart

We have a different situation, the tone is more bearish. Rates closed under the cloud, which is a bearish signal, the 2 sen are working to the downside, meanwhile the span is working under the rates, but span is still above the cloud even id we are on the top of the cloud area.
We broke the EMA 50 in early august when ECB president talked about the current economic situation of Europe.
RSI broke at the same time the neutral area, and began to work south, one week after MACD were crossing his neutral level, and then accelerated.
On weekly, all the analysis are in favor of the downside.

On daily we are still in the downtrend, the 2 sen are working to the same direction, Span too.
Euro seems to go to 1.3666 top of December 2004.
The last candle is a doji, we could see perhaps a bounce from these level or from 1.3666 area.
I am waiting for a weaker usd soon from fundamental and technical analysis.

Be long @ 1.4657
Be short @ 1.4386

Be long @ 1.3844
Be short @ 1.3573

EUR/JPY

Long EUR/JPY @ 146.15 SL 143.70

We have closed our GBPJPY position @ 185.34 so 385 pips
We have opened a long eurusd position @ 1.3822 SL 1.3573
We have opened a short usdchf @ 1.1358 SL 1.1605

Positions

October 08 Points

EUR/JPY

We just closed our short eur/jpy @ 146.90
Result +711 pips

We are moving our two SL on EUR/JPY @ 154.01 and GBP/JPY 191.00

At last we made a month under 1500 pips, we only made 920 pips. Market was very volatile, and we have to be vigilent such as Jean Claude in monitoring closely the Paulson plan. Our view is plan is going to brings USD under pressure, while twin deficit is growing and growing.

Most important to know is at what price Treasury or the Fed is going to buy the stinking assets.

The main problem is also to find how to attract investors, they will have to give interesting rates to fund it. Problem is the USA are in recession, so it s going to be a nightmare for them to act in increasing rates have they need it.

I am also scare for one thing, we are in money market crisis, and these crisis as the major crisis are a debt crisis, and the solution to solve the problem is to clean the US banks balance sheet to allow them to give new loan, but in my opinion banks are not going to give new loans. Banks are going to improve their liquidity ratio and looking to improve their owners equity.

We are still bearish USD on medium long term

GBPJPY

Short from 189.19 SL 193.62

EUR/JPY

Short eurjpy @ 154.01 SL 156.83

Positions

so we were stoped @ 106.94 at our price on usdjpy + 0
and we were also stoped @ 1.0934 on usdchf +258 pips

We are only long eurusd @ 1.4384 with SL at 1.4480

Positions updated

We were stopped on EURGBP @ 0.7981 and stopped on EUR/JPY @156.83

We are still holding our 3 last positions, we put our SL at our price on usdjpy, so @ 106.94,

and we are putting our SL @ 1.0934 on usdchf, and at 4480 on eurusd

USDCHF

We are going to keep our position if we reach 1.0832, as we think a much lower target 1.0625 first, then 1.0535, then 1.0010

Positions updated

Positions

We re open a short position on usdjpy @106.94 SL 107.87
and short eurjpy @154.01 SL 156.83

New positions

Finaly we are opening 2 positions

Short usdchf @1.1192 SL 1.1371
Short usdjpy @ 107.27 with a SL @ 107.87

If we are stopped we don't reverse the positions

Reflexions about trouble time

We are now in a big recession time, this recession is arriving while the financial system is in a huge panic, and close to the big black hole.

Crisis is not over, another one is begining Credit Card default


I am worried about the US debt now, somebody have to pay and have to fund the superbe balance sheet(or shit) of Fanny, freddy, and AIG. Probably the rest of the world have to pay for the american excess of credit.

Subprime crisis is probably over or close to be it, but now, welcome to a new one
the CREDIT CARD DEFAULT in the states as the unemployment rate is still going upand people have to understand that bank will not open new loans for firms before quarters as they are very shocked ,and the main task of banks is to fund the economy.

Firms are going to lay off til couple of month bringing increase of unemployment, and default on many family loan, same for firms, as bank are reducing loans offer, will be difficult to invest for them.

Positions updated

We were stopped on 3 positions during the night
We were stopped on cable @1.8080, stopped on usdchf @1.1192, and stopped on ausie @0.8072

We have 2 open positions

long eur/usd
short eur/gbp

We are not opening any positions at the present time, due to the market.
Market seems to bounce like last Easter week end, could be a 3 month bounce before the next roll over session.

Update of the positions 18/9/2008 operations since the begining of the month

We are at the present time


Long Cable @1.7749 we are putting our SL at 1.8080 with a target @ 1.8687
Long EUR/USD @ 1.7749 with a SL @1.4090 and taget @1.4900
Short USD/CHF @1.1192 with SL at our price and our target is 1.0832
Short AUD/USD @ 0.8072 with a SL at our price and target @0.7800
Short EUR/GBP @ 0.7903 SL @0.7981 and target as 0.7805
Short EUR/CHF @1.6020 SL at 1.5946 and target as 1.5720

New positions

We have opened three new positions

Long EUR/USD @1.4382 SL 1.4091
Long cable @1.7749 SL 1.7291
Short EUR/GBP@ 0.8135 sl 0.8213

Positions

NZD/USD

We are closing our short kiwi @0.6855 our P&L is 0.7080-0.6855= + 225 pips


We are opening a long position @0.6855 SL @0.6763

We are opening a long AUDUSD @.8326 SL 0.8072

AUD/USD wkly chart

Ausie was hit by a huge slap, as the commodities prices felt like a stone it was reflecting on AUDUSD. Since July market is puking ausie, we are dealing on the bottom of the cloud on weekly chart. But it s an area where there is a lot of support.
On the weekly chart, the 2 sen crossed, span crossed and his working under the rates but above the cloud.
EMA 50 broke while MACD and RSI too.

On daily everything on ichimoku is showing bearish trend, RSI is oversold, MACD is under 0 but seems to be stable now.

There is a huge long term support line which started in Nov 2005 which is not so far from where we are at the present time, support could be seen arround 0.8230.

We are waiting for a bounce arround here or 0.8230

In the uptrend

Be long @0.9088 SL 0.8834
Be short @0.8834 SL 0.9088

In the downtrend

Be long @ .8326 SL 0.8072
Be short @0.8072 SL 0.8326

EUR/JPY wkly chart

EURJPY is moving in a kind of chanel (in grey).
EURJPY dropped massively in August by in about 1 000 pips.
On weekly we are dealing under EAM 50, we are in a small part where the cloud is very thin, the 2 sen are still showing bullish trend, the Chinkou span is trading on the top of the cloud and above the rates.
MACD is near to enter in bearish trend, RSI have already crossed.
Everything is showing the current trend following, think EURJPY is going to 153, in coming weeks.

On daily everything is bearish but we are arriving on area of support, a bounce could be seen close to 158.60.

In the uptrend

Be long @165.29 SL 162.47
Be short @162.47SL 165.29

In the downtrend

Be long @156.83 SL 154.01
Be short @154.01SL 156.83

USD/CHF wkly chart

USDCHF is the same as USD/JPY.
From the low at 0.9636 last march, the pair have made a correction in 3 waves, we already hit the equality arround 1.0980.
We recovered 38.2% of the former downside movement from 1.3280 (nov 2005) til .9636 (march 08).
USD/CHF have problems in weekly to handdle 1.1060, the pair is making2 doji (hanging man).
There is a risk of downside now on usdchf, moreover, we are on the bottom of the cloud on weekly chart and I don't think rates are goin ghigher.
We are dealing above the EMA 50, RSI is still in negative and MACD just crossed.
On the ichimoku, the 2 sen crossed but under the cloud, which means becareful with the "bullish trend" .
span is dealing above the rates but seems to have made a top, and Span is working below the cloud.

On daily we are in a range at the present time, with a lot of Doji , counter days.

Prefer the short options at the present time

In the uptrend

Be long @1.1371 SL 1.1192
Be short @ 1.1192 SL 1.1371

In the downtrend

Be long @1.0832 SL 1.0653
Be short @1.0653 SL 1.0832

Cable Wkly charts

Cable took an incredible slap more than 1650 pips during the month, movement could been predicted a little bit by the 7 last months on cable which formed 7 doji or quite doji.

Everything is bearish and in all time frame!!!!
But it s interesting to note that we are correcting in 3 waves composed like follow

1. the first correction from 2.1161(Nov 07) to 1.9336(January 08)
2. We made a correction on lateral movement from 1.9336(January08) til 2.0158 (July08)
3. The third movement is in progress

Ususally there is equality, the already hit the theoric point in technical analysis, where the movment from 2.1161 to 1.9336 is the same than the one from 2.0158 to 1.8333*

1.8333= ( 2.0158 - ( 2.1161-1.9336 ))

In Fibonacci we are retraced more than 61.8% of the movement from 1.7047(Nov 05)-2.1161(Nov 08).

Enter short now is in my opinion a suicide, I will wait a signal to buy for a correction of a such movement.

in the uptrend

Be long @1.9125 sL 1.8667

Be short @1.8667

in the downtrend

Be long @1.7749 SL 1.7291

Be short @1.7291 SL 1.7749

I draw a chanel, don't know if it s good or not, thing is if we break 1.7291 we are going much lower arround 1.4500/500 in long term view.

USD/JPY wlky chart

Signals are September 2008

September is going to be the USD/JPY month, I am convinced about that, all the jpy pairs showed a strong jpy as carry trade position are reducing.

In weekly USDJPY is showing the same than GBP/JPY a month ago, 2 big doji on the last three weeks.

Moreover, we are on the EMA50, just on it MACD crossed to the upside, RSI bounced back on 50 levels, and stay in bear trend. Signals are mixed.

In weekly, Ichimoku, we reached and we stayed 2wks arrounds the bottom of the cloud, we didn't arrive to enter inside the cloud.

At last, USD/JPY retraced former downtrend from 124.13(June 07) til 95.73(March08) by 50%, the candle pattern formation boost our bearish case scenario.

The 2 Kijun, and Tenkan Sen are still on the upside and Chinkou Span is still under the cloud but above the rates.

On daily chart, there is a bearish divergence on our MACD, RSI is closed to cross 50 levels.
and EMA 50 @ 108.15 is attracting the rates. If we break it market will accelerate in our view the downside, the support will be seen arround 106.95 as it s also the March trend line support

In the uptrend

Be long @110.66 SL 109.73
Be short @109.73 SL 110.66

In the downtrend

Be long @ 107.87 SL 106.94
Be short @106.94 SL 107.87

We are currently short USD/JPY @109.11 with a SL @110.80, objective is seen at 105.00, then 103.20, and 101.30 before 100.00

EUR/USD wkly chart

I have choosen a weekly charts to see the levels of Fibonacci from the Low of Nov 2005 @ 1.1642 and the all time high @1.1638, levels are on the charts but the interesting thing, is 38.2% is correponding to the long term support trend line.

The main trend is bullish, in my opinion, the huge downside movement from August is only a correction.
On daily chart we broke early august a huge horizontal challenge, we drew a very nice M.
The theoric objective was hit @ 1.4566 ( same distance from 1.5302(june08) to 1.6038(july 08)).
I will be not surprised if the movement is going to 1.4380 before a huge bounce to the1.50-52 first, and 1.60 later in the year.
All indicators under the weekly chart are showing downtrend, but we have problems to go lower.
RSI is oversold MACD is showing downtrend, EAM50 is crossing to the downside the EMA 150.
The 2 sen have crossed, we are working under the cloud, and Span is floating under the cloud, and under the rates.

In the uptrend

Be long @ 1.5255 with a SL @ 1.4964
Be short @1.4964 with a SL @1.5255

In the downtrend

Be long @1.4382 with a SL @1.4091
Be short @ 1.4091 with a SL @1.4382
The same as GBP/JPY, and it will be the same for the others position, be very carefull with your sl, as the SL are wide.

GBP/JPY analysis Wlky chart

I let the settings of last month, the only thing I can say, it's incredible, it s a school case, we were right, I couldn't imagine than GBPJPY will drop like that in a month, GBP took a huge slap.

GBPJPY dropped by in about 1 600 pips!!!

It s funny cause on the chart we can see a the wave clearly,

Wave 1 from 251.09(Jul 07) to 219.32 (Aug 07)

Wave 2 from 219.32 to 241.36(Oct 07)

wave 3 from 241.36 to 192.53(Mar 08)

wave 4 from 192.53 to 215.87(Jul 08)

Wave 5 current move with an objective to 184.10

On daily chart, everything is showing bearish trend, RSI is entering in oversold territory, MACD is under 0, trend is bearish.
The ichimoku, are showing also the same bear trend, the 2 sen crossed, we are dealing under the cloud, and the Span is going to new lows,

GBP/JPY is going back to the March 08 lows at 192.50, if we break it the objective is the area of 184-185.

Becareful in using the points this month, as we had a huge volatility in August the signals are wide, so recommand to adjust it with your money management.

In the uptrend

Be Long @207.11 with 202.62 as SL

Be Short @202.62 with 207.11 as SL

In the downtrend

Be Long @193.62 with 189.13 as SL
Be Short @189.13 with 193.62 as SL

I am waiting a small bounce in the coming days to 202.60, test of the 13/8/8 low, seems to be a nice resistance, the same with 201.78(21/8/8)low.

September 08 Levels

September 08 News

Hello Hope everything is alright,

So we are up by in about 3 000 pips, we are going to open positions only on
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
EUR/JPY
EURCHF
EUR/GBP
GBP/JPY
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Will be easier for us to manage only these pairs

We have 2 open positions

Short USD/JPY @109.11 SL 110.38
Short NZD/USD @0.7080 SL 0.7080

NZD/USD

We are puting our SL at our price 0.7080 on NZD/USD, we are thinking to see a weaker USD due to the roll of September. We are keeping our position short usdjpy, which is ranging at the present time but should drop very soon in our opinion
Wish you a nice day and we are making this week end a sum up like at the begining of the month.

25th aug NZD/USD

Short NZD/USD @0.7080 SL 0.7204 target 0.6640

short usdjpy @109.11 SL 110.38 TP 106.57 and even lower to 100

Think we have to wait the end of the month to see some new signal to re open positions.
I am still thinking to see a weaker USD later in the year, we are only retracing.
So we know one thing, all the G8 are on recession or are close to be.
Carefull in September due to the roll over of loans.... , banks will have other losses to show, it s not finished

Update of the position

13 august 2008

HEllo all,

As we are on holiday, it s the reason why the blog is not updated everyday.
Market broke several big points, which sent the USD much higher, but still thinking we are in a correction, and the main trend is bearish.
System gave very good return this month, more than 1 500 pips on the 10 pairs.
See u next week .
We are closing all our position now

Target for open position

Our target on our open positions are

GBPJPY our target is 208.75
EURJPY our target is 165.50
USDCHF our target is 1.0690
GBPUSD our target is 1.9380
USDJPY our target is 106.50

Positions on aug 5 2008

Morning, note the moved our stopped on all ccys, we were stopped at our price on usdnok, and we were stopped on cable, so now we are short @1.9550 and we put our stop at our entry prices on USDCHF, GBPJPY and EURJPY

GBPUSD 05/08/08

If we are stopped at 1.9552, reverse position and be short with SL @1.9692 for a test of 1.9350

04 August 2008

long GBP/USD @ 1.9692 SL 1.9552 target 1.9974

GBPJPY Weekly chart

Same view as mid July, we bounced on the strong resistance @215.87, trend is on the downside, span is crossing prices levels on daily and weekly.

MACD is showing bearish divergence, the RSI is very close from 50, and we are very close from EMA 50, even if we are working above the cloud.

We are currently short from 214.20, and we are expecting 208.00 and even lower 201.00

Be short at 209.62, SL 211.79 for a target arround 204.20 and 201.00

AUD/USD daily chart

We are on our long level of the month, but will not take the long at the present time, due to commodities price action, don't believe in the long. Expecting lower side before a bounce, we could play the long after we are certain of a bottom.
MACD crossed, same for RSI, prices are going to go downside, we can imagine that prices are on the way to the EMA 200 arround 0.9180 before a bounce.
The current trend is bearish, we are working under the cloud, et the two sen have already crossed. We also crossed the yearly channel(channel from July 2007). On monthly candlestick formation are very bearish, like if we reached a top.
I prefer to stay outside.

EUR/JPY daily chart

Market have problems to go above 170.30.

Rates are playing above the cloud, the 2 sen are showing a bullish trend. Thing is they are very close. Span is trying to break and to work under prices which is bearish view.

We rebound last 2 weeks 2 times on the EMA50, we can watch divergence on MACD and RSI over the few last weeks.

The cloud is fat, which means the trend will be stronger, so if we are going under 165.66 we could increase the probability of a return to 161.60.

In short term open a short @ 165.66 with SL @ 166.93 and 161.60 as target.

I will not open a long position at the present time or taking my profit at 166.93, I am waiting for a massive drop on eurjpy, will see arround 165.60 what's happening

USD/CHF daily chart

It's bullish time on a short term, main trend is down, but we are trying to reach a top before collapsing.

I think, rates could reach 1.0615 even 1.0680 before boucing to the downside.

On the daily chart, we are dealing above the cloud, the two Kijun sen, and tenkan sen have already crossed the span is crossing the rates.

RSI, and MACD have also crossed their neutral levels to the upside, so next resistance are seen arround 1.0690/1.0700 and 1.0720.

Currently we are long USDCHF at 1.0420 with a SL @ 1.0319 with target arround 1.0690.

In case be short USD/CHF at 1.0615 with a SL @1.0756 for 1.0330 and later 1.0000 as medium term target.

Be long at 1.0756 with SL 1.0615 for a test of 1.1000

USDJPY daily chart

On the daily chart, we are working on the EMA 200, we have problems to hurdle 108.30-50 and we have problems to go under 107.50.
We tried two times to break 108.30 so EMA 200 is protecting the downside trend.
We are working above the cloud, the Kijun and Tenkan Sen have already crossed to the upside, but the span is trying to work under the rates.
MACD, and RSI are above their neutral levels but they are close from them.
When we are watching at weekly chart, we have the EMA 50 which is playing the same character than EMA 200 on daily chart and trend remains strongly bearish.

If we reach 106.60 the bearish view will be bolster, in the other case a breaking of 108.30 will bolster the upside trend.

We are currently short since august @ 107.36 with taget as 105.00 b

Be short @105.30 with SL at 106.57, 100.00 as target

Cable daily

It's very complex pair in my opinion, cause UK is in the same horrible situation then the States, and probably more than them.
Inflation and recession are coming, and BOE will have problem to solve the equations both at the same time. Choice have to be choosen correctly and all central banks have these dilemna at the present time. Do they have to fight inflation first in coming the country into recession or to help growth with low rates bossting inflation and destroying economy in the long term.....

We are working above the cloud but prices couldn't arrive to stay above 2.0000.
The 2 sen are crossing to the downside, span is going to work under prices which is bearish, cloud is very thin, RSI, and MACD are also their neutral levels to the downside.
Same feelings than on EURUSD, GBP can rebound from these areas to retest higher of the former months.
The 1.9380 seems to be well protected, any break of it will bring cable toward 1.9110-20 level and probably lower with objectives at 1.9000 even to 1.8630 area which is 61.8% fibo from 1.7065(Dec 2005) and 2.1161(nov 2007).

Currently we don't have open positions on cable

Be long @1.9692 withStop Loss @1.9552 target: 2.000 test and probably to 2.0150, before 2.0350 and 2.0480

Be short @1.9552 with SL @ 1.9692 target @ 1.9380 and lower as i said above.

EURUSD daily chart

At the first look, we are doing the similar pattern than what happenedbetween November 2007 and February 2008 when we broke 1.5000. It's interesting we are gdoing the same at 1.6000.

The main trend is still on the upside even if we are working at the bottom of the cloud.

The 2 sen(Kijun, and Tenkan) crossed to the downside, which means the pair could work lower. The Chinkou Span is working under the rates, means also the pair needs to work below the current levels.

We broke also the EMA50, while MACD, and RSI have been crossing their neutral to the downside too.

We are working in a huge range from 1.6030 - 1.5280, Any breaks from of this 2 levels will giving to us the next trend , I think we will have an answer very soon.

Currently we are long at 1.5605 with a SL 1.5510(from July).

Be long @1.5455 with a Stop Loss @ 1.5313(reverse the position), for a new attempt at 1.6030 we could take 1/2 of our positions at 1.5739.

Be short @1.5313 with a stop Loss @1.5455 for a test of 1.4950-4900.

Position 31/07/08

Levels for August 08

It s simple to use, u have one short one long in the uptrend, and one short one long on the downtrend, when the price is reaching the level you enter and the other point of the trend represents the SL. ie
Short eurusd 1.5739 SL 1.5881 or
long eurusd @1.5881 SL 1.5739

It s very easy, then you can, as we do, put filters with EMA's, RSI, MACD....
The most important is to have a strict money management.
Well we will update lots of graph during the next two days

Positions