US index mth

Well lets talk about USD index
As we saw last weeks, there is a flight to quality assets, american investors took back their investments from all arround the world to put them in the best safe asset which stay T Bonds, and T bills, they are still the most liquid safer assets. This is why USD have been strong over the last weeks.
In monthly chart we are dealing under the cloud, the 2 sen are in a downtrend, span is working under the cloud, and under the rates. All on monthly are showing a USD downtrend.
We are dealing under EMA 50 and 200, and we are very close to the EMA 540 @82.70
We have retraced 50% of the movement from 92.53(Nov05) til 71.06 (april 08).
We could see a strong resistance on the EMA 50 level, if we break it we could go to 84.20 area which is the 61.8% retracement from the levels I said, and moreover we will be on the top of the small channel.
RSI came back from oversold levels but still in donwtrend area, while MACD is worried me a lot. As you can see there is a wonderful bullish divergence on monthly MACD. The coming month will giving to us a better vision.
Now on fundamentals, I am more worried on USD for several reasons,

1. The twin Deficit is increasing
2. Unemplyement rate is increasing
3. Consumer credit is dropping
4. Consummer spending is also dropping
5. The current rate of the USD will have negative impact on exports
6. GDP must go much lower due to the export and less consumption
7. Real Estate is going to stay weak
8. The debt which is increasing more and more
9. Banks are going to improve their liquidity ratio and equity capital than giving new loans to fund the economy