lundi 20 octobre 2008
jeudi 16 octobre 2008
mercredi 15 octobre 2008
EURUSD and USDCHF
I have close EURUSD @1.3564 +40 pips and closed USDCHF @1.1358 at my price so 0, we are still short cable
Market is totally incredible, and I prefered to square the position in taking some profit.
Market is totally incredible, and I prefered to square the position in taking some profit.
mardi 14 octobre 2008
vendredi 10 octobre 2008
jeudi 9 octobre 2008
US index daily chart
Same view as USD/CHF, we have strong bearish divergence on MACD and RSI on daily chart.
Yesterday, several central bank cut their main interest rate, to stop money market freezing.
I think if we find or found a bottom on stocks, we could see a stock rally til the US election and extended til xsmas. This could bring opeartors to square their long T Bonds or T bills positions, so we could see a weaker USD on the coming weeks
mercredi 8 octobre 2008
USD/CHF daily chart
We are short from 1.1309, I have cut my first entry as I was not feeling the european morning session.
On daily analysis the 2 sen crossed on the upside, we are dealing above the cloud, and span is working on the downside but above the rates, and the cloud. All seems bullish.
But if we are taking times to analyse the moving average, and candlestick formation, we are watching interesting thing, we are working above the moving average, but the candlestick pattern is an bearish engulfment from yesterday, and we have the confirmation today, seems market is reversing at the present time, and there is also two things which is helping me to choose this way is the both indicators, MACD and RSI are showing bearish divergence .
These 3 elements are telling me that we can go first arround 1.1180 1.1080 1.0990-1.1000
Positions
I have closed my USDCHF at my price 1.1357
I have close GBPUSD at my price 1.7496
It s stinking too much, prefer to watch before to open new positions
I have close GBPUSD at my price 1.7496
It s stinking too much, prefer to watch before to open new positions
mardi 7 octobre 2008
USD/JPY
Same outlook than last month, JPY is strong for 2 reasons, one is carry trade are reducing due to uncertainty and Japanese banks were not in subprime. The only risk for Japanese banks are the counterparty risk with Lehman, but I heard was not a lot in about 400 or 500 Mios for the biggest.
On monthly chart we are working in a wonderful triangle. We are working under the cloud, the 2 sen are showing dontrend, and span is working under the cloud, and under the rates, all the view in long term is very bearish.
In term of EMA we are working under all the moving average, MACD and RSI are working below the neutral area.
support are seeing arround 101.81, 101.20, 100.00, 98.90
On weekly chart, it s the same analysis than in monthly, averything is showing downtrend
MACD is crossing neutral area, and we are closed to enter in oversold area on RSI 39...
US index mth
Well lets talk about USD index
As we saw last weeks, there is a flight to quality assets, american investors took back their investments from all arround the world to put them in the best safe asset which stay T Bonds, and T bills, they are still the most liquid safer assets. This is why USD have been strong over the last weeks.
In monthly chart we are dealing under the cloud, the 2 sen are in a downtrend, span is working under the cloud, and under the rates. All on monthly are showing a USD downtrend.
We are dealing under EMA 50 and 200, and we are very close to the EMA 540 @82.70
We have retraced 50% of the movement from 92.53(Nov05) til 71.06 (april 08).
We could see a strong resistance on the EMA 50 level, if we break it we could go to 84.20 area which is the 61.8% retracement from the levels I said, and moreover we will be on the top of the small channel.
RSI came back from oversold levels but still in donwtrend area, while MACD is worried me a lot. As you can see there is a wonderful bullish divergence on monthly MACD. The coming month will giving to us a better vision.
Now on fundamentals, I am more worried on USD for several reasons,
- The twin Deficit is increasing
- Unemplyement rate is increasing
- Consumer credit is dropping
- Consummer spending is also dropping
- The current rate of the USD will have negative impact on exports
- GDP must go much lower due to the export and less consumption
- Real Estate is going to stay weak
- The debt which is increasing more and more
- Banks are going to improve their liquidity ratio and equity capital than giving new loans to fund the economy
USD/NOK weekly
This is a weekly chart,
We are working above the cloud, the 2 sen are on the way to cross to the upside even if we have time to do it, span is trying to cross the rates on the upside.
It s still bearish on weekly chart even if there is sign of a stronger USD, if we break the chanel resistance is seeing at 6.7960, 6.8150, 6.8636, on the other side it s 5.7200, 5.5550, 5.3320
We are on the top of a long term channel, we could see a bounce from these levels to see a stronger NOK, but think we have to wait til next week to see if we didn't break to the upside, oil is still under pressure, so could see a stronger USDNOK
We are working above all the EMA which is bullish, MACD and RSI shift to bullish trend, but we are on the limit of overbought period on RSI long term.
We can also say that we are close to reach 50% retracement from 7.7146(End of August 03) 4.9460(april 08)
In 6 months we retraced in about 50% of the 4.5 years......
I am more in a favour of a correction from the current level in case of usd correction, in the other case we are going to the resistance that I gave you above
Be short @6.0074 for 5.7104 test with a SL @6.1560
lundi 6 octobre 2008
Position
We were stopped on eurusd, and eurjpy. I am going to update the files in the matinee, same with all the chart analysis over the day and will finish tomorrow probably.
dimanche 5 octobre 2008
Cable
On monthly chart, we are in the cloud, in september rates were closed to reach the EMA 200 @ 1.7380. If
The 2 sen crossed last august, the span dropped too to the rates, and it broke the rates in September.
Next important support is seeing at the bottom of the cloud arround 1.7040. This level is also
the bottom of November 2005.
So currently the 2 sen have crossed, the span is working under the rates but above the cloud, and as we said above we are in the cloud.
On EMA we are between the EMA 50 and 200, MACD crossed last month and RSI too, it s bearsih.
Even if we are bullish on EURUSD, I think Cable is going to be very difficult to forecast over the coming month. The same crisis is hitting both England and the USA. I am more worried about england than the States, in fact England is driving by financial services, and today it s difficult to forecast the end of the crisis.
By end of crisis, I think banks are safe now with all the measures that politics made. I think we are coming in a huge recession, as banks are going to improve their liquidity ratio and their equity capital than lend money to small firms and main street people, firms are going to lay off, consumer spending will continue to decline as consumer credit will stay low..... and the vicious circle is turning.
In weekly chart everything is bear on the ichimoku, and all the moving average is showing downside movement.
MACD have crossed in early January as cable made is top last november. From January til July cable was ranging, we can sse on monthly chart the 7 doji.
RSI 39 is becoming oversold on weekly chart.
On daily it s the same than in weekly all indicators are bearish, we will not open a position when rates are going to cross our point. We are going to be very vigilent over the coming weeks.
EUR/USD october
On monthly chart, we are still in the uptrend, we are working above the cloud, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen are still oriented on the upside. The Chinkou span, is working above both rates and the cloud.From graphic, and moving average, the situation is the same even if we are attracting to the EMA 50 (1.3498) we are above EMA50 and 200.
MACD is till showing uptrend, and we are on the bought situation reagrding the RSI. RSI 39 broke last august the overbought limit.
We have a different situation, the tone is more bearish. Rates closed under the cloud, which is a bearish signal, the 2 sen are working to the downside, meanwhile the span is working under the rates, but span is still above the cloud even id we are on the top of the cloud area.
We broke the EMA 50 in early august when ECB president talked about the current economic situation of Europe.
RSI broke at the same time the neutral area, and began to work south, one week after MACD were crossing his neutral level, and then accelerated.
On weekly, all the analysis are in favor of the downside.
On daily we are still in the downtrend, the 2 sen are working to the same direction, Span too.
Euro seems to go to 1.3666 top of December 2004.
The last candle is a doji, we could see perhaps a bounce from these level or from 1.3666 area.
I am waiting for a weaker usd soon from fundamental and technical analysis.
Be long @ 1.4657
Be short @ 1.4386
Be long @ 1.3844
Be short @ 1.3573
vendredi 3 octobre 2008
jeudi 2 octobre 2008
mercredi 1 octobre 2008
We are moving our two SL on EUR/JPY @ 154.01 and GBP/JPY 191.00
At last we made a month under 1500 pips, we only made 920 pips. Market was very volatile, and we have to be vigilent such as Jean Claude in monitoring closely the Paulson plan. Our view is plan is going to brings USD under pressure, while twin deficit is growing and growing.
Most important to know is at what price Treasury or the Fed is going to buy the stinking assets.
The main problem is also to find how to attract investors, they will have to give interesting rates to fund it. Problem is the USA are in recession, so it s going to be a nightmare for them to act in increasing rates have they need it.
I am also scare for one thing, we are in money market crisis, and these crisis as the major crisis are a debt crisis, and the solution to solve the problem is to clean the US banks balance sheet to allow them to give new loan, but in my opinion banks are not going to give new loans. Banks are going to improve their liquidity ratio and looking to improve their owners equity.
We are still bearish USD on medium long term
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