February Levels

January Result

This is what we realized this month, according sometimes to the signals, sometimes on ichimoku, and sometimes scalp(few one).
We choose as example a position by 100 000 units.
For example
Short USD/JPY $100 000
Long EUR/USD €100 000
So to calculate in Eur our P&L, we are hedging our position in selling or buying the accrued interest in using the Close of the last day open.

I am going to post analysis over the coming days, cause there is a lot of strange things hapening at the present time.
I have made all this trade but not with the same capital, unfortuneatly

USD/CAD

short 1.2265 SL 1.2416

close positions

aud/usd 0.6400 +50 pips
aud/jpy 57.41 +10 pips
eur/jpy 115.69 -61 pips
USD/JPY 89.66 -31 pips
EUR/CHF 1.4955 -92 pips
USD/CHF 1.1609 +57pips
EUR/USD 1.2891 +60 pips

another scalp
Short AUD/JPY 57.51 SL 58.10

Positions

I have open severeal scalp for the day

Short AUD/USD 0.6450 SL 0.6485
short EUR/JPY 115.08 SL 115.69
Short USD/JPY 89.35 SL 89.66
Short EUR/CHF 1.4863 SL 1.4955
Lonf USD/CHF 1.1552 SL 1.1483


was stoped on Kiwi short at my price, and I am still short eurusd

Cable

close my long cable at +2

Cable didn't move as expected, so closing the short position. Put my SL at my price on both Kiwi and eurusd at the present time we are kiwi 0.5113 and eurusd 1.2886, so put SL @0.5138 and 1.2951

GBP/USD

short cable 1.4264 SL 1.4375

EUR/USD

I am short according to the ichimoku @ 1.2951 SL 1.3056

Kiwi

Short NZD USD @0.5143 SL 0.5200

I have a reverse order in case to be long at 0.5200 with SL 0.5143

January P&L

Apparently I was wrong, but strange days on Forex, I couldn't imagine to see the US flying like that.

Positions

long eurusd 1.3168 closed @ 1.3038 -130 pips
short usdchf 1.1428 closed @ 1.1490 -63 pips
short usdcad 1.2556 closed @1.2178 +378 pips
long nzdusd 0.5274 stoped @0.5153 -121 pips
short eurgbp 0.9437 closed @ 0.9114 + 323 pips
long eurjpy 117.54 Stoped @ 117.14 -40pips
short usdsgd 1.4989 stoped @ 1.5070 -81 pips
long cable 1.4229 @ closed @ 1.4279 +50 pips

USDCHF what a beautiful bearish divergence

It s USD/CHF 4h chart

Interesting things, we broke the support line which have been starting at the begining of the month. We broke it the Jan 26th 2009. As dow theory we bounce to test it after the FOMC meeting yesterday, and we bounce back to the downside. We are at 1.1450 at the present time, a new test of 1.1350 is on the way.

On ichimoku

The 2 sen crossed to the downside the 26th jan, price is inside the cloud, the two sen are in the cloud and chinkou span is still above the cloud but below the rates.

It s signs of bounce on USDCHF.

We are just above the EMA 50, while EMA 200 is very close to the EMA 50. A retest of the EMA 200 area is on the way in my opinion, 1.1445 minimum and then much lower.

I am very confident as there is MACD bearish divergence, and we are close to neutral zone on both indicator.

In term of Fibonacci, we retrace 61.8% from the movement from top the 23 Jan @ 1.1714 and the bottom at 1.1312 the 27 Jan.

On longer term we have by fibo levels a correction from 29/12/08 @1.0364 and 23 Jan 2009 @1.1714

38.2% 1.1205

50.0% 1.1038

61.8% 1.0881

76.4% 1.0675

I am still short @1.1428

Cable

Long at 1.4229 SL 1.3820

T notes 10 Years

weekly chart 1 et 2


daily chart


Le futur 10 ans semble évoluer dans un canal depuis les plus hauts de début Décembre 2008, où le rendement avait atteint 2.0380.
C’est peut être le sous jacent qui m’inspire le plus pour le moment…..

Si l’on considère le mouvement allant de la semaine du 11 Juin 2007 à la semaine du 15 Décembre 2008 alors nous avons un mouvement de hausse en 3 phases, décomposé en une phase de hausse, une baisse, et enfin une dernière hausse.
1. Phase allant de la semaine du 11 Juin 2007 à 103.64 au 17 Mars 2008 à 120.03
2. Phase allant de la semaine du 17 Mars 2008 à 120.03 au 13 Octobre 2008 à 111.35
3. Phase allant de la semaine du 13 Octobre 2008 à 111.35 au 15 Décembre 2008 à 128.70
Si l’on considère les égalités de mouvement, le mouvement de la phase 1 est égal à au mouvement de la phase 3 à quelque 0.45 point de future.
Si l’on considère que nous avons fait un top à 128.70 et que nous en phase de correction, alors les niveaux de Fibonacci sur le dernier mouvement, à savoir entre 111.35 et 128.70 nous donnent un objectif de retour sur

38.2% 122.60
50% 120.06
61.8% 118.02
La zone de 120.06 semble être une zone importante en cas de poursuite du mouvement correctif, et en cas de break du canal que l’on peut observer sur le graphique quotidien.
Le mouvement de repentification ne serait pas à mettre à l’actif d’une amélioration des données économiques mais au contraire sur le risque de solvabilité des Etats à l’égard de l’importance de sa dette.
Le problème n’est pas cantonné aux USA, mais à l’ensemble des pays industrialisés.
Des taux à 2.50-75% seront-ils assez attractifs pour financer les plans de sauvetage des différentes économies mondiales ?
Réponse NON selon moi.
Dans le cas ou l’on ait fait un mouvement complet entre la phase 1 et 3 alors les niveaux de Fibonacci seraient
38.2% 119.16
50.0% 116.2
61.8% 113.25

La zone 119 à 120 est à garder en tête le cas échéant.
Je ne serais pas étonné que l’on aille nettement plus haut en terme de yield sur le futures 10 ans au fur et à mesure que les Etats vont mettre en action la planche à billet. La pentification de la courbe long terme serait une bonne chose pour l’économie.

Objectif Moyen terme à 120 avant la fin de l’année.

usdsgd

daily chart

short usdsgd @ 1.4990 SL 1.5110





I am not following my long signal, and I prefer to enter short as I am watching a possible head and shoulders. We tested 4 times 1.5115 without success and we could bet on a possible head and shoulders pattern with a return to 1.4673 first and then a move to 1.4575 then closing the new years eve gap @1.4500, then 1.4331 before a test of 1.4164 and 1.4100


We can see divergence on both RSI and MACD, we retraced 76.4% Fibo from the movement which began Nov 21th 08 @ 1.5347 and Dec 18th 08 @ 1.4164.

It s smelling very very bad, market are ready to bounce, and gold could fly to 1 000 USd and probably to re test 1 100 area while oil could go to 62 - 70 USD, and index could go much higher everything could bounce from now it s very strange but could be interesting in the view to sell higher.
It s not really what I was thinking in term of timing, but it s like last year for easter week end, everything was bear and we bounced, It was my scenario for late March after the market collapsed.
I am still thinking that March is going to be very awful, like big dark cloud, and I think we are not prepared for that.
In the other hand we have to know the Obama rescue plan could bring back confidence even if I doubt about it. I think we could see S&P arround 920 930

EURGBP

Add short eurgbp 0.9437 SL 0.9495

Positions

long eurusd 1.31689 SL 1.2946
short usdchf 1.1428 SL 1.1645
short usdcad 1.2556 SL 1.2389
long nzdusd 0.5274 SL 0.5159

Gold

wkly chart

Le Spot Gold a rebondi sur son support long terme lors de la semaine du 19 Octobre 2008.

Le XAU/USD semble vouloir tester sa résistance oblique aux alentours de 920 USD

Ichimoku

Nous sommes dans le cloud, les Tenkan Sen et Kijun Sen viennent de croiser à la hausse mais se trouve juste en dessous du cloud.
Le Chinkou Span traite au dessus du cloud mais en dessous des cours, même s’il est très proche des cours. Ceci implique que nous n’avons pas de tendance haussière confirmée. Toute clôture au dessus de 932.3 USD confirmerait une tendance haussière à moyen terme devant conduire l’or vers 1 500 USD l’once en attendant un test des 2 000 USD.

Si l’on prend le retracement de l’or entre la semaine du 17 Juillet 2005 à 419 USD et la semaine du 16 Mars 2008 à 1 033.5 on obtient

38.2% 800 USD
50% 727 USD
61.8% 655 USD

Or nous avons touché le plus bas la semaine du 19 Octobre à 681 USD, depuis l’or semble se rediriger vers les 1 000 USD.
On traite au dessus de la moyenne exponentielle à 50 périodes, le MACD est sur le point de passer en uptrend, et le RSI se trouve en uptrend.

En cas de break out de 936.6 il faut passer long pour un test des 1 100 USD et pour un objectif à moyen terme de 1 500 USD

Nymex

daily chart

En daily les cours du Light Crude Oil se trouvent dans un range entre 35 USD et 50 USD depuis le début de le début du mois de Décembre 2008.
Le marché semble avoir tenu et semble vouloir se diriger vers un nouveau test de la zone des 50 USD.
Le test de la zone de résistance se trouve aux alentours de 50.50 USD, si jamais nous venions casser à la hausse alors nous pourrions imaginer que le mouvement devrait aller vers la zone des 62.83 voir même 72 USD

Si l’on prend en compte le retracement entre le 22 Septembre 2008 à 110.475 et les plus bas du 15 Janvier 2009 à 33.175 on obtient

38.2% $ 62.80
50% $ 72.00
61.8% $ 81.11

Si le range est cassé alors nous avons comme objectif théorique
50.5 - 35.25 = 15.25

15.25 + 50.5 = 65.75 USD

Si le range était cassé à la baisse alors cela nous donnerait
35.25 – 15.25 = 20 USD

Je favoriserais plus la hausse que la baisse, du fait qu’il y a toujours des divergences haussières sur le MACD ou le RSI. Un retour vers 63 USD est à prévoir rapidement, en cas de cassure des 50.50 USD.

Short USDCAD 1.2556 SL 1.2556

eurusd +210
eur/jpy +400
audusd +160
nzdusd +145
nzdjpy +240
audjpy +250
usdjpy +100
usdchf +240
gbpusd +540
eurgbp +250

SL Management

Following the Kijun Sen at 4h so my SL are

EUR/USD 1.3100
EUR/JPY 117.10
NZD/USD 0.5352
AUD/USD 0.6650
NZD/JPY 47.75
GBP/USD 1.4300
AUD/JPY 59.19
USD/JPY 89.19
EUR/GBP 0.9137
USD/CHF 1.1350

I have closed all my position and initiate new one yesterday. What happened yesterday on spain is the worst case scenario, banks are going to be nationalised, and market are going to attack countries, if euro is helding during the cyclone eyes where we are, EURO will become the new reserve currency in my opinion.
We are going to see something huge, probably the basement of a european debt agency, this is the only way to calm the market, and for euro to don't split, this is my view. I will pass long eur when S&P is going to put the US debt under watch...................It will be the signal to sell the usd not before.
All my bearish view in long term on usd stay as the same, BEARISH USD. but we have to make money so I am at the present time long usd

short nzdjpy @49.264
short nzdusd 0.54306
short gbpusd 1.43998
short audusd 0.67029
short eurjpy 119.989
short audjpy 60.34
short eurusd 1.31502
long usdchf 1.13533
long eurgbp 0.90806
Short usdjpy 89.90

EUR/NOK 12 January 09 based on

Daily

EUR/NOK is dealing above the cloud, the two sen are working above the cloud, and Kijun Sen(blue)<>

The Chinkou Span(white) is sitting both above the cloud and prices.

All the indicators from Ichimoku are showing uptrend.

The 2 EMA(Exponential moving average) the 50(yellow) and the 200(grey) are in uptrend.

In fact we probably made a top the 24 Dec 2008 @ 10.1596. Then we made on daily a nice shooting star formation, which brought a correction where we are now.

In my opinion we are in a short term correction before another all time high attempt.

Usually correction are made in 3 movement, we made the first from 26 Dec 08 @ 10.1415 till 6 January @ 9.3645 then we bounced (second one) close to 38.2% of the former movement to 9.6395 and we resumed last friday the current downtrend. I think we could see the movement moving a further more to the downside.

Weekly & Monthly

We broke a long term triangle from 2003 in the 21 september 2008 week.

As the daily chart, all indicators are showing uptrend, while we are since the 28 Dec week in a correction movement. We made a huge bearish engulfment on the top which means we finished the bull movement @ 10.1596.

According to Fibonacci retracement from 24 August 2008 week @ 7.8996 till 21 Dec 2008 week @ 10.1596

38.2% 9.2951

50% 9.0276

61.8% 8.7601

The 2 EMA crossed to the upside in the 28 Sep 2008 week.

All indicators we are using are giving to us an uptrend.

According to the eaquality of the movement we can go to

10.1596 - 9.3645 = 0.7951

9.6395 - 0.7951 = 8.8444

8.8444 is interesting cause it s close to 8 February 2004 High and it s belonging to the interval of 50% and 61.8% retracement.

We have also a huge support @ 9.3246 where prices could bounced to retest all time high.

USD/JPY 11 January 2009

Daily

Price are working under the cloud, the 2 sen are working under the cloud, but have crossed to the upside as Kijun sen <>

Chinkou Span is both below cloud, and price.

Major part of the indicator are showing downtrend.

USDJPY have made apparently a correction on 3 from Dec 17 08 to January 6 09.

The 2 EMA are showing downtrend, and we bounced last monday on the EMA 50.

MACD and RSI are in the selling area.

current price

We are currently short from 93.10 SL 93.10

Weekly & Monthly

All indicators(ichimoku and EMA) are showing dontrend, and the last candle is interesting cause we have a bearish engulfment of the last Dec week.

I am still in favor of a test of the all time low @79.75 and probably lower even I think BOJ could make intervention in the 80 area.

USD/CHF 11 January 2009

Daily

Price are below the cloud. The 2 sen are sitting below the cloud, and are in downtrend.

The chinkou Span is below both prices and cloud.

The trend is bearish.

The 2 EMA are still showing uptrend, but the gap became thiner.

The MACD and RSI are in selling area

Be short @1.1205 for a test of parity.

By Fibo from 21/11/08 @ 1.2296 and 29 Dec 08 @ 1.0364

we have

38.2% 1.1094

50% 1.1320

61.8% 1.1555

Be short @1.1205 SL 1.1480, I am reducing our SL as it s too wide, and above this level there will be more room to go to retest 1.23 and the top of the chanel(long term)

Current price 1.1130

Weekly

We are in a chanel which I described on the analysis of the 14 Dec.

Prices are above the cloud, under the Kijun sen. The 2 sen are showing uptrend as

Tenkan sen > Kijun sen. Chinkou Span is below the cloud but above prices.

It s mix signals even if it slightly bullish.

The 2 EMA are showing downtrend as EMA 200(1.1858) > EMA 50( 1.1159)

We closed the week under the EMA 50.

MACD is moving to his neutral point , while RSI is sitting on his neutral signals.

On Fibo we reached from 16 Nov week @ 1.2296 and 28Dec 2008 week @ 1.0364

38.2% 1.0896

50% 1.3232

61.8% 1.1550

Monthly

We are working under the cloud, the 2 sen are at the crossing, but are at the same level.

The Chinkou Span is both under the cloud, and price.

All ichimoku instruments are showing downtrend.

The 2 EMA are showing downtrend, MACD is showing a bullish divergence, while RSI is in selling territory.

On the fibonacci from the March 08 low @ 0.9636 and Neovember high @ 1.2296 we retraced on December 61.8%. We retraced in one month what we made four month to reached.but since the low we bounced(cf weekly and daily)

GBP/USD 11 January 09

Daily

The price are under the cloud price are just sitting below the bottom of the cloud, the 2 sen are
showing donwtrend as they are below the cloud, and Kijun Sen is above Tenkan Sen(red).

Chinkou Span is working below the cloud, but is above the price now.

Ichimoku are showing bear trend even if we are close to the bottom of the cloud.

The EMA are showing downtrend too, but MACD and RSI are showing both bullish divergence,

cable seems to be capped at the present time by the EMA 50 @ 1.5330

If we arrive to break this level we could have traget based on Fibonacci( from 25 Oct08 @ 1.8667 and 31 Dec 08 @ 1.4349).

38.2% 1.5990

50% 1.6500

61.8% 1.7010

But before that we have to breakout 1.5330 and also 1.5725, but I am sure that if we break 1.5330, we are going to errase 1.5730 area.

Current price 1.5160

Long cable @ 1.5329 SL 1.4925

I will not open a short position before the break out of 1.4357 this month.

Weekly

It s simple every analysis is bearish

Just an observation, in using only the ichimoku, we ought to be short from 1.9726 from 27 July week and we should have been stay short even today.

EUR/USD analysis 11 Jan 09

4 h chart is just here to show you the channel where we are at the present time, and for the quaterly it s just to show you on the ellipsis the perfect shooting star on all time high, a school....

case

So here we go

Daily

On daily we are on top of the cloud but inside. The two sen are above the cloud and are on uptrend even if we are dealing under the Kijun Sen(blue one).

the chinkou Span (in white) are above the price but are still in the cloud.

Ichimoku are giving mix signals.

The 2 EMA50(yellow) and EMA 200(grey) are showing downtrend. Price are on the EMA50 area closed on Friday just below the EMA 50 (at 20 pips).

MACD is still in positive territory while RSI is on his neutral area.

On Fibo last movement we retraced between 50% and 61.8% from the last movement from 28 October 08 at 1.2329 and 18 Dec 08 @ 1.4719.

In my opinion trend is still bullish if we stay above the 1.3230 area. If we break 1.3230 I think we will take the ride to 1.2120 and probably lower to 1.1640 but I have too much doubt about that scenario, as I already wrote here, I am more in favor of a massive USD devaluation over the coming month, but I have to admit that I don't know when it will start, but be sure that it will happen when we will realised that recue plan will require more and more fund, and it will more and more difficult to fund the debt for government.

I am going to watch closely the % of unemployment the TIC, and the overall US debt. We can't continue to create money like that without inflation, probably it will happen in a second part of 2009 or early 2010 but it will happen.

Current 1.3475

Long at 1.3339 SL 1.3339

Res 1.3500 1.3620 1.3860 1.4100 1.4360 1.4710

Support 1.3300 1.3250 1.3051 1.2815 1.2545 1.2316

Weekly

We are below the cloud, the Tenkan Sen(red) and Kijun Sen (blue) are showing downtrend.

The Chinkou Span is below both price and cloud.

All Ichimoku analysis are showing downtrend.

The 2 moving average are still showing uptrend. We currently closed the week just below the EMA 200.MACD is still recovering to his neutral signal, while RSI is still in the selling area.

From Fibo I will make 2 analysis one from the larger movement and one from the short term.

Long term

From the 13 July 08 Week at 1.6038 and 26 Oct 08 week at 1.2329.

We reached 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the 14 Dec 08 week. This means we probably resumed the downtrend, but generaly correction are made in in 3 movement one up, one down, and one up, but here we have only one leg to the upside and one leg to the downside which the current movement, so it s the reason why I am making another Fibonacci retracement.

From the 26 October 08 week low at 1.2329 and Dec 14 week high at 1.4719 we retarced between 50 and 61.8%.

For me the trend is bearish even if we can consider till 1.3250 a possibility of a bounce.

Monthly

The price are above the cloud, the two sen are at the level while they are sitting above the cloud.

The chinkou Span is above both cloud and price.

Trend is still bullish.

The 2 EMA are showing are still in a bullish trend, MACD is above his neutral signals and RSI is also in his neutral signals.

Price are on the EMA 50 @ 1.3475 at the present time and we made a very nice morning star on the monthly chart.

In the case I am wrong and if we are coming back to the 1.2329 the long term trend could shift to a bearish and long term target could be seen at 1.1010 from the equality of the movement from 1.6019-1.2329 =0.3709, and if 1.4719 is the top of second movement we could have

1.4719-0.3709= 1.1010

long cable @1.5333 SL 1.4952

stopped at my price on usdchf.
Going to re-open arround 1.1205 in case

Short USDSDG 1.4682 SL 1.4995

Short USDJPY 93.10 SL 95.42,
SL on eurusd at my price 1.3339
Short USDCHF 1.1058

Stopped on USDJPY -125 pips

Open a long EURUSD @1.3339 SL 1.2753
We are taking 1/4 lot on the position due to large SL

Position USDJPY

I put the SL on USDJPY @94.25 in case

Position

Short USD/JPY @ 93.10 SL 95.42

EUR/JPY update

HEllo all

I am waiting to see this triangle on 4h eurjpy to open a position on that pair

EUR/JPY 04 January 2009

Daily

We are inside the cloud but the 2 sen crossed to the upside while they are in the cloud.

the span is above the rates but under the cloud.

Mix signals are coming from the Ichimoku

the 2 EMA are showing downtrend we are currently on the EMA50 area, trying to take a clear trend. MACD turned in uptrend area, while RSI si below his neutral area

Weekly

All the ichimoku are showing the downtrend.

The 2 EMA have crossed to the downside in the last week of November 2008.

MACD is showing downtrend while RSI is close to getting out from is oversold area.

Resistance on the upside could be seen @ 130.80 and to the downside @118.28.

Monthly

We are working below the cloud, the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are working just above the top of the cloud. The span si inside the cloud, but under the rates.

We have mix signals from the ichimoku

We can calculate fibonacci from July 2008 @169.96 and October 08 @113.63, and we obtain

38.2% 134.92

50% 141.70

61.8% 148.14

76.8% 156.90

The 2 EMA are still showing uptrend even if the gap is thiner and thiner. MAcd is showing downtrend, and RSI bounced on his overbought signal level

I think EURJPY is already in a correction of this huge develeraging movement. We lost in 4 month in about 5 700 pips, I will not be surpised if we see a correction to the 141.70 area, but it s long term view, could take several month because I think volatility could drop in a significant manier over the coming month.

EURGBP 04/01/09

Daily

The 2 sen are showing uptrend and they are above the cloud, rates are working above the cloud

the span is also showing a bull trend on daily chart.

On daily candle we bounced back from an important multi year corridor. I will not be surpised if we bounced a little from the 0.9800 before an attempt to the psychological area of 1.0000.

The 2 EMA are showing a bull trend. MACD have probably topped. RSI is absolutely overbought.We can draw a support line on the RSI and if we break that line we could see a huge correction.

I am more in favour of a correction than something else, be bullish at that level is too dangerous in risk ratio. there is more room to the downside than to the upside,

Trend Bullish

Weekly

Rates are working above the cloud, like the 2 sen, and the Kijun and Tenkan Sen have crossed .

The chinkou Span is working also above the cloud and rates.

Ichimoku studies are showing uptrend.

The 2 EMA 's are also showing a bull trend, the MACD is in above his neutral signal, while long term RSI is amazingly overbought.

On candle analysis the weekly is showing a doji which could lead to a correction before resuming the main bullish trend.

fibo from 0.7693 from 19 october week to 0.9804 from 28 dec are giving

38.2% 0.9000

50% 0.8750

61.8% 0.8500

76.8% 0.8183

current price @ 0.9567

I think the risk ratio is interesting to take a short arround our current level with a SL @ 0.9760

so in about 200 pips sl for a return of 560 pips, the risk ratio is good in my opinion

Monthly

We are in a long Channel we hit the top last December @0.9804, on yearly we saw eurgbp increasing by 29.5% from the open to the close.

It s a simple devaluation of a currency, and that s what I am expecting to see on the USD this year.

We are working above the cloud, the 2 sen crossed and are above the cloud. The span is working above cloud and rates, everything is showing bull trend.

The 2 moving average are showing also uptrend, MACD is in uptrend territory, while RSI is extremely overbought.

All the analysis is showing uptrend, but the channel was reached and I will bet more on a retracement before an attempt to the parity. I will see more an attempt on the parity in March April when the bonuses will be at 0 or close to 0 and the effect on the British GDP but I really doubt we are going to try the parity todays.

USD/CHF 03 January09

We were quite happy on the USD/CHF, the pair followed the way we thought in December, the market resumed his long term downtrend and we took in about 1550 pips in 2 positions short 1.1996 closed at 1.0775 and short from 1.0946 closed 1.0628

The test of the former support was the signal of the bounce to the downside. On monthly chart we are in a corridor and in my opinion market is going to make a new low on the pair in 2009.

Daily analysis

Ichimoku

We are working under the cloud, the 2 sen( Kijun Sen blue, Tenkan Sen red) crossed, and the chinkou span(white) is working under the cloud and also under the rates. All the studies on daily are showing a downtrend.

On daily candle, we are in a correction we could coming back to the 1.1130 - 1.1205 before collapsing once again.

The moving average are showing (yellow EMA 50 grey EMA 200) still uptrend, but the gap between the 2 moving average is becoming thiner and thiner.

We are working under both EMA. (EMA 50 is at 1.1380 while EMA 200 1.1152)

Market could bounce to that levels.

The MACD has crossed and RSI too in December, we dropped sharply on both indicators.

Trend is bearish.

We are in a correction which could go up to 1.1330 before resuming the downtrend.

Res 1.1079 1.1205 1.1330 1.1480 1.1550.

Support 1.0688 1.0625 1.0539 1.0410 1.0169 1.0000

Weekly

Ichimoku

Rates are in the cloud, we have already bounced two times on the bottom of the cloud.

The Tenkan and Kijun gap is reducing and the 2 Sen are working above the cloud.

The Span is dealing under the cloud, but above the rates.

It s a mix signal sent from the USDCHF on weekly, We could see a bounce due to the candle formation to 1.1175 area .

The 2 EMA are showing the downtrend. The rates bounced on 61.8% of Fibonacci from (0.9636 bottom from the week of 16/03/08 and 1.2296 the top from 16 November 08 week).

The MACD is still in the uptrend, while RSI is in selling area.

On weekly chart, USDCHF have probably bounced the last week of December. Even if my view is bearish, there is too much mix signals, so I prefer to stay outside and waiting signals.

Bullish signals could be seen at 1.1330.

There is no divergence seen on MACD or RSI

Monthly

We are working under the cloud, the 2 sen are very close and almost crossing while they are under the cloud.The chinkou span is under the cloud, and under the rates.

The ichimoku are showing us a downtrend.

The 2 moving average are still showing us a downtrend. MACD is under his neutral signal, and RSI is still in sold territory but above the oversold area.

1.1724 (green line) seems to be a good level to enter long in case, but I am still forecast a new low in 2009 above the 0.9636.

Points for January 2009

All the best for 2009

Happy new year, and all the best for 2009.
Will try to update 2 times per month the blog, begining and on mid month.

So 2009 is going to be the year of all the danger, we have the reset on Subprime, USD devaluation, and probably in 2010-2011 hyperinflation. I am still negative on USD as their economy has failed.
Remember the last quarter of 2008.
In one month, Freddy and Fanny was rescued, same for AIG, and for Lehman we know what happened....
The easing policy is the only solution of the FED now, but as all central banks have injected billions and billions , nothing happened, banks doesn't want to lend money on interbank market, look at the LIBOR on O/N and on 3 months, there is no cash offer from the month, banks doesn't want to lend to other bank exemple in USD OverNight rate is between 0-0.25% and 3 mth 1.47 there is something funny, market should be at 0.40-0.43 in normal case.

The key issue this year is going to be like last year, watch the interbank market.
Governement bonds are also going to be the market, I am sure that we are going to see a major reversal on Treasuries rates are too low....

In fact market is betting on deflation like in Japan in early 90's, or Japan and the States are not the same, the USA have the money, and it s here the big difference, what Japan tried to do 20 years ago was not possible as all the commodities prices are in USD. We are going to see inflation probably in 2010 by commodities prices as all countries are creating a kind of New deal.

but what governement forgot is that more than 60% of our GDP are coming from Consumers, and banks are not lending to consumers, so the demand is going to be weaker and weaker, and GDP will stay low.

Will try to have times to develop my global view.

So whishing u once again a nice 2009 year and be careful