It s USD/CHF 4h chart
Interesting things, we broke the support line which have been starting at the begining of the month. We broke it the Jan 26th 2009. As dow theory we bounce to test it after the FOMC meeting yesterday, and we bounce back to the downside. We are at 1.1450 at the present time, a new test of 1.1350 is on the way.
On ichimoku
The 2 sen crossed to the downside the 26th jan, price is inside the cloud, the two sen are in the cloud and chinkou span is still above the cloud but below the rates.
It s signs of bounce on USDCHF.
We are just above the EMA 50, while EMA 200 is very close to the EMA 50. A retest of the EMA 200 area is on the way in my opinion, 1.1445 minimum and then much lower.
I am very confident as there is MACD bearish divergence, and we are close to neutral zone on both indicator.
In term of Fibonacci, we retrace 61.8% from the movement from top the 23 Jan @ 1.1714 and the bottom at 1.1312 the 27 Jan.
On longer term we have by fibo levels a correction from 29/12/08 @1.0364 and 23 Jan 2009 @1.1714
38.2% 1.1205
50.0% 1.1038
61.8% 1.0881
76.4% 1.0675
I am still short @1.1428
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