All the best for 2009

Happy new year, and all the best for 2009.
Will try to update 2 times per month the blog, begining and on mid month.

So 2009 is going to be the year of all the danger, we have the reset on Subprime, USD devaluation, and probably in 2010-2011 hyperinflation. I am still negative on USD as their economy has failed.
Remember the last quarter of 2008.
In one month, Freddy and Fanny was rescued, same for AIG, and for Lehman we know what happened....
The easing policy is the only solution of the FED now, but as all central banks have injected billions and billions , nothing happened, banks doesn't want to lend money on interbank market, look at the LIBOR on O/N and on 3 months, there is no cash offer from the month, banks doesn't want to lend to other bank exemple in USD OverNight rate is between 0-0.25% and 3 mth 1.47 there is something funny, market should be at 0.40-0.43 in normal case.

The key issue this year is going to be like last year, watch the interbank market.
Governement bonds are also going to be the market, I am sure that we are going to see a major reversal on Treasuries rates are too low....

In fact market is betting on deflation like in Japan in early 90's, or Japan and the States are not the same, the USA have the money, and it s here the big difference, what Japan tried to do 20 years ago was not possible as all the commodities prices are in USD. We are going to see inflation probably in 2010 by commodities prices as all countries are creating a kind of New deal.

but what governement forgot is that more than 60% of our GDP are coming from Consumers, and banks are not lending to consumers, so the demand is going to be weaker and weaker, and GDP will stay low.

Will try to have times to develop my global view.

So whishing u once again a nice 2009 year and be careful