EURGBP 04/01/09

Daily

The 2 sen are showing uptrend and they are above the cloud, rates are working above the cloud

the span is also showing a bull trend on daily chart.

On daily candle we bounced back from an important multi year corridor. I will not be surpised if we bounced a little from the 0.9800 before an attempt to the psychological area of 1.0000.

The 2 EMA are showing a bull trend. MACD have probably topped. RSI is absolutely overbought.We can draw a support line on the RSI and if we break that line we could see a huge correction.

I am more in favour of a correction than something else, be bullish at that level is too dangerous in risk ratio. there is more room to the downside than to the upside,

Trend Bullish

Weekly

Rates are working above the cloud, like the 2 sen, and the Kijun and Tenkan Sen have crossed .

The chinkou Span is working also above the cloud and rates.

Ichimoku studies are showing uptrend.

The 2 EMA 's are also showing a bull trend, the MACD is in above his neutral signal, while long term RSI is amazingly overbought.

On candle analysis the weekly is showing a doji which could lead to a correction before resuming the main bullish trend.

fibo from 0.7693 from 19 october week to 0.9804 from 28 dec are giving

38.2% 0.9000

50% 0.8750

61.8% 0.8500

76.8% 0.8183

current price @ 0.9567

I think the risk ratio is interesting to take a short arround our current level with a SL @ 0.9760

so in about 200 pips sl for a return of 560 pips, the risk ratio is good in my opinion

Monthly

We are in a long Channel we hit the top last December @0.9804, on yearly we saw eurgbp increasing by 29.5% from the open to the close.

It s a simple devaluation of a currency, and that s what I am expecting to see on the USD this year.

We are working above the cloud, the 2 sen crossed and are above the cloud. The span is working above cloud and rates, everything is showing bull trend.

The 2 moving average are showing also uptrend, MACD is in uptrend territory, while RSI is extremely overbought.

All the analysis is showing uptrend, but the channel was reached and I will bet more on a retracement before an attempt to the parity. I will see more an attempt on the parity in March April when the bonuses will be at 0 or close to 0 and the effect on the British GDP but I really doubt we are going to try the parity todays.