4 h chart is just here to show you the channel where we are at the present time, and for the quaterly it s just to show you on the ellipsis the perfect shooting star on all time high, a school....
case
So here we go
Daily
On daily we are on top of the cloud but inside. The two sen are above the cloud and are on uptrend even if we are dealing under the Kijun Sen(blue one).
the chinkou Span (in white) are above the price but are still in the cloud.
Ichimoku are giving mix signals.
The 2 EMA50(yellow) and EMA 200(grey) are showing downtrend. Price are on the EMA50 area closed on Friday just below the EMA 50 (at 20 pips).
MACD is still in positive territory while RSI is on his neutral area.
On Fibo last movement we retraced between 50% and 61.8% from the last movement from 28 October 08 at 1.2329 and 18 Dec 08 @ 1.4719.
In my opinion trend is still bullish if we stay above the 1.3230 area. If we break 1.3230 I think we will take the ride to 1.2120 and probably lower to 1.1640 but I have too much doubt about that scenario, as I already wrote here, I am more in favor of a massive USD devaluation over the coming month, but I have to admit that I don't know when it will start, but be sure that it will happen when we will realised that recue plan will require more and more fund, and it will more and more difficult to fund the debt for government.
I am going to watch closely the % of unemployment the TIC, and the overall US debt. We can't continue to create money like that without inflation, probably it will happen in a second part of 2009 or early 2010 but it will happen.
Current 1.3475
Long at 1.3339 SL 1.3339
Res 1.3500 1.3620 1.3860 1.4100 1.4360 1.4710
Support 1.3300 1.3250 1.3051 1.2815 1.2545 1.2316
Weekly
We are below the cloud, the Tenkan Sen(red) and Kijun Sen (blue) are showing downtrend.
The Chinkou Span is below both price and cloud.
All Ichimoku analysis are showing downtrend.
The 2 moving average are still showing uptrend. We currently closed the week just below the EMA 200.MACD is still recovering to his neutral signal, while RSI is still in the selling area.
From Fibo I will make 2 analysis one from the larger movement and one from the short term.
Long term
From the 13 July 08 Week at 1.6038 and 26 Oct 08 week at 1.2329.
We reached 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the 14 Dec 08 week. This means we probably resumed the downtrend, but generaly correction are made in in 3 movement one up, one down, and one up, but here we have only one leg to the upside and one leg to the downside which the current movement, so it s the reason why I am making another Fibonacci retracement.
From the 26 October 08 week low at 1.2329 and Dec 14 week high at 1.4719 we retarced between 50 and 61.8%.
For me the trend is bearish even if we can consider till 1.3250 a possibility of a bounce.
Monthly
The price are above the cloud, the two sen are at the level while they are sitting above the cloud.
The chinkou Span is above both cloud and price.
Trend is still bullish.
The 2 EMA are showing are still in a bullish trend, MACD is above his neutral signals and RSI is also in his neutral signals.
Price are on the EMA 50 @ 1.3475 at the present time and we made a very nice morning star on the monthly chart.
In the case I am wrong and if we are coming back to the 1.2329 the long term trend could shift to a bearish and long term target could be seen at 1.1010 from the equality of the movement from 1.6019-1.2329 =0.3709, and if 1.4719 is the top of second movement we could have
1.4719-0.3709= 1.1010
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