USD/CHF 03 January09

We were quite happy on the USD/CHF, the pair followed the way we thought in December, the market resumed his long term downtrend and we took in about 1550 pips in 2 positions short 1.1996 closed at 1.0775 and short from 1.0946 closed 1.0628

The test of the former support was the signal of the bounce to the downside. On monthly chart we are in a corridor and in my opinion market is going to make a new low on the pair in 2009.

Daily analysis

Ichimoku

We are working under the cloud, the 2 sen( Kijun Sen blue, Tenkan Sen red) crossed, and the chinkou span(white) is working under the cloud and also under the rates. All the studies on daily are showing a downtrend.

On daily candle, we are in a correction we could coming back to the 1.1130 - 1.1205 before collapsing once again.

The moving average are showing (yellow EMA 50 grey EMA 200) still uptrend, but the gap between the 2 moving average is becoming thiner and thiner.

We are working under both EMA. (EMA 50 is at 1.1380 while EMA 200 1.1152)

Market could bounce to that levels.

The MACD has crossed and RSI too in December, we dropped sharply on both indicators.

Trend is bearish.

We are in a correction which could go up to 1.1330 before resuming the downtrend.

Res 1.1079 1.1205 1.1330 1.1480 1.1550.

Support 1.0688 1.0625 1.0539 1.0410 1.0169 1.0000

Weekly

Ichimoku

Rates are in the cloud, we have already bounced two times on the bottom of the cloud.

The Tenkan and Kijun gap is reducing and the 2 Sen are working above the cloud.

The Span is dealing under the cloud, but above the rates.

It s a mix signal sent from the USDCHF on weekly, We could see a bounce due to the candle formation to 1.1175 area .

The 2 EMA are showing the downtrend. The rates bounced on 61.8% of Fibonacci from (0.9636 bottom from the week of 16/03/08 and 1.2296 the top from 16 November 08 week).

The MACD is still in the uptrend, while RSI is in selling area.

On weekly chart, USDCHF have probably bounced the last week of December. Even if my view is bearish, there is too much mix signals, so I prefer to stay outside and waiting signals.

Bullish signals could be seen at 1.1330.

There is no divergence seen on MACD or RSI

Monthly

We are working under the cloud, the 2 sen are very close and almost crossing while they are under the cloud.The chinkou span is under the cloud, and under the rates.

The ichimoku are showing us a downtrend.

The 2 moving average are still showing us a downtrend. MACD is under his neutral signal, and RSI is still in sold territory but above the oversold area.

1.1724 (green line) seems to be a good level to enter long in case, but I am still forecast a new low in 2009 above the 0.9636.